Analyst loves this Canadian crypto stock

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained his “Outperform” rating and $28.00 price target on Riot Platforms (Riot Platforms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:RIOT) following the company’s fiscal 2025 results.

“Riot Platforms remains on track to its transition from a pure-play Bitcoin miner into a large-scale digital infrastructure,” Toner said in his March 3 report. “While the company achieved record annual revenue of $647-million in 2025, the primary focus remains on the rapid build-out of its data centre business.”

The AMD lease, which became operational in January 2026, marks a key milestone, Toner added. “The AMD lease validates Riot’s ability to convert its 1.7GW power portfolio.”

For full-year 2025, Riot reported revenue of $647.0-million, up 72% year-over-year, and a net loss of $663.2-million, or $1.95 per share, driven by depreciation, contract settlement losses and mark-to-market adjustments on Bitcoin holdings. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.0-million, while EBITDA excluding fair value adjustments was $128.9-million. Riot ended the year with 18,005 BTC, valued at approximately $1.6-billion at year-end, and $309.8-million in cash.

Bitcoin production totalled 5,686 BTC in 2025 at an average cost to mine of $49,645 per BTC. Riot generated $57.0-million in power curtailment credits, lowering effective power costs to 3.7 cents per kWh. The company’s engineering subsidiary, ESS Metron, contributed cumulative capex savings of $23.2-million to date, while backlog in the engineering segment reached a record $224.6-million, with 90% tied to data centre demand.

Toner values Riot using a sum-of-the-parts methodology, applying a 7.0x multiple to 2026 EBITDA for the core mining business. He assigns additional value to the company’s high-performance computing opportunity, including $0.59 per share for the initial 25MW AMD deal. A full 200MW buildout would be worth approximately $5.00 per share, he estimates.

Overall, Toner views his HPC valuation as conservative relative to the potential net operating income the footprint could generate if fully converted.

Following the results, Toner modestly reduced his 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast to $209.9-million from $221.0-million, reflecting updated assumptions, but said the revisions do not alter his core thesis. He sees these estimates improving to $234.3-million in EBITDA on revenue of $801.5-million in fiscal 2027.

“We remain highly confident in the value of Riot’s rare, energized power assets,” he said. “We believe the market has yet to fully price in this strategic shift.”

-30-