This “Made in Canada” defense tech stock is a buy, analyst says

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff raised his target on Calian Group (Calian Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGY) to C$84.00 from C$72.00 on February 12, maintaining his “Buy” rating following what he described as a return to “beat and raise” form.

Ottawa-based Calian Group provides systems engineering and business and technology services across Canada, the United States and Europe.

Calian reported Q1/F26 revenue of C$208.0-million and Adjusted EBITDA of C$22.8-million, with diluted EPS of C$1.03, ahead of Goff’s C$201.0-million, C$19.8-million and C$0.93 forecasts and consensus at C$204.2-million, C$19.5-million and C$0.91. Revenue rose 12.4% year-over-year, evenly split between organic and acquisitive growth, while Adjusted EBITDA increased 28.1%, with margin expanding to 11.0% from 9.6% a year earlier.

Management cited 6% organic growth in the quarter and highlighted a strengthening defense backdrop, with new contract wins in Europe and the U.K. supporting backlog growth. Calian added C$171-million in new contract signings in the quarter, following C$122-million in Q4, bringing backlog to C$1.4-billion.

“We believe our forecasts and the expected consensus expectations leave upside as the year progresses,” Goff said in his Feb. 12 report, pointing to a strong acquisition pipeline and management’s target of returning to eight to 10% annual revenue growth.

Goff now forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue of C$856.9-million and Adjusted EBITDA of C$90.9-million, above consensus at C$849.6-million and C$86.9-million. He expects margins to expand through the year, modelling a 10.6% EBITDA margin in F2026, improving to 11.2% in F2027. For fiscal 2027, he projects revenue of C$942.6-million and Adjusted EBITDA of C$105.1-million.

Goff said his C$84.00 target reflects 8.4x and 7.6x EV/EBITDA on his 2027 and 2028 estimates, within Calian’s five-year historical average.

He believes the company is well-positioned to benefit from increased defense spending and potential “Made-in-Canada” industrial policy initiatives, with excess manufacturing capacity and national capabilities supporting further upside.

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