This analyst just lowered his price target on Riot Platforms

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained an “Outperform” rating on Riot Platforms (Riot Platforms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:RIOT) while lowering his price target to US$28.00 from US$30.00 in a Feb. 25 note, reflecting a more conservative 2026 bitcoin price deck.

Toner said AI infrastructure names have delivered mixed performance amid volatility in digital assets, but he remains confident in a bitcoin recovery in 2026.

“We have tempered our near-term targets compared to prior estimates… we remain steadfast in our belief in Bitcoin’s inherent power to recover,” he said, forecasting bitcoin to reclaim the US$140,000 range by late 2026.

For Q4/25, Toner expects Riot to report $132.4-million in revenue. While bitcoin production remains important, with deployed hash rate reaching 38.5 EH/s, up 22% year-over-year, he said focus has shifted toward monetization of Riot’s treasury and its high-performance computing pivot.

Riot sold 1,818 BTC in December for $161.6-million to support capital-intensive data centre initiatives. Toner highlighted the company’s 10-year lease with AMD at its Rockdale site as validation of its 1.7GW power footprint, calling it “a proof of concept that derisks the valuation” of remaining capacity.

Toner values Riot using a sum-of-the-parts methodology, applying a 7.0x multiple to 2026 EBITDA (before fair value adjustments).

He expects Riot to generate $145.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $657.0-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $221.0-million in EBITDA on revenue of $750.8-million in fiscal 2026.

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