Should you sell your First Solar stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Philip Shen maintained his “Buy” rating and $300.00 price target on First Solar (First Solar Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FSLR) in a Feb. 25 earnings note, despite what he characterized as mixed fourth-quarter results and a weak 2026 outlook.

First Solar, founded in 1999 and headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, develops, manufactures and sells photovoltaic modules and solar power systems.

“First Solar delivered a mixed Q4’25/weak 2026 guide,” Shen said, noting the stock fell 13% after-hours following a wide 2026 revenue miss, with guidance of about $5.1-billion versus buyside consensus of $5.9-billion and sellside consensus of $6.2-billion.

The analyst said the near-$1.0-billion revenue shortfall was primarily driven by a substantial reduction in international shipments due to tariffs, particularly in Southeast Asia, where 2026 volumes are now expected to fall to roughly 1 gigawatt.

While headline numbers disappointed, Shen argued valuation remains compelling at about 8x his 2026 EBITDA estimate.

First Solar reported Q4 revenue of $1.7-billion, about 7% above consensus. Gross margin of 39.5% missed expectations, and excluding 45X tax credits of approximately $532-million, gross margin was 8%, below both consensus and Roth estimates. Core EPS ex-45X came in at negative $0.10, missing forecasts.

For 2026, management guided revenue to about $5.1-billion, shipments of roughly 17.6 gigawatts and 45X benefits of about $2.1-billion. Shen said the outlook appears conservative, pointing to blended module pricing assumptions and stable warranty expense and potential catalysts, including tariff developments, possible Section 337 intellectual property actions and evolving FEOC guidance.

Shen expects First Solar to generate $2,659.8-million in EBITDA on $5,051.2-million in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to $3,330.8-million in EBITDA on $5,850.0-million in revenue in fiscal 2027.

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