Should you sell your Generac stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Chip Moore maintained a “Neutral” rating and US$184.00 12-month price target on Generac Holdings (Generac Holdings  Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:GNRC) ahead of fourth-quarter results, citing a more balanced risk-reward profile as weakness in the core home standby business offsets accelerating momentum in commercial and industrial demand tied to data centres.

In a Feb. 10 report, Moore said he remains cautious into the Q4 print, even as longer-term secular drivers remain intact.

“We maintain our Neutral recommendation into Q4 results given more challenging trends for the core home standby business, even as momentum in data center (C&I) continues to build,” he said, adding that Generac remains “a dominant category leader in backup power and well positioned for long-term secular drivers.”

Generac is scheduled to report Q4/25 results before the open on Feb. 11. Moore forecasts December-quarter revenue of US$1.17-billion and adjusted EPS of US$1.90, modestly above Street expectations, though he flagged some near-term risk given subdued outage activity late in the year. He noted that a late-January winter storm, which left as many as one million customers without power across parts of the southern U.S., could provide some offset. Initial guidance for 2026 is expected with the release, with consensus currently calling for revenue of about US$4.71-billion.

While expectations for the residential home standby segment “should be appropriately calibrated,” Moore said investor focus remains firmly on the C&I opportunity, particularly data centres. Backlog in that segment stood at roughly US$300-million exiting the prior quarter, with most shipments scheduled for 2026, and capacity expansion remains a near-term priority following the announced acquisition of a new Wisconsin facility expected to open in late 2026. Moore said management continues to target the potential to double total C&I sales over the next three to five years.

He said that residential dealer count continued to edge higher exiting Q3, while close rates improved despite lower outage-driven demand. Ecobee is expected to deliver a full year of positive EBITDA contribution, and the clean energy segment remains supported by the Puerto Rico contract.

Moore said Generac should generate US$731-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$4.29-billion in fiscal 2025, improving to US$888-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$4.72-billion in fiscal 2026.

At the current share price, Moore said his target implies an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of about 13.5 times 2026 estimates, slightly above historical averages, supporting his Neutral stance as execution on the data-centre opportunity remains the key upside lever.

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