Buy BitFuFu stock for a double, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Darren Aftahi maintained a “Buy” rating and US$6.00 price target on BitFuFu (BitFuFu Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FUFU) after January operating metrics showed continued growth in hash rate, bitcoin holdings and power capacity, even as near-term power constraints temper visibility.

In a Feb. 9 note, Aftahi said BitFuFu expanded overall hash rate to 29.6 EH/s in January from 26.1 EH/s the prior month, while improving average fleet efficiency to 17.5 J/TH from 18.3 J/TH. Total power capacity increased 9% month-over-month to 520 MW, and bitcoin held rose to 1,796, up 16 month-over-month, with January production of 229 BTC, including 46 BTC from self-mining.

Cloud hosting remained the core growth driver, with revenue up roughly 78% year-over-year in the third quarter, more than three times the pace seen in the second quarter, while net dollar retention doubled sequentially to approximately 120%. Aftahi said cloud hosting continues to provide flexibility in navigating bitcoin price and network dynamics, though expiring contracts created some near-term headwinds.

“That said, we believe demand is robust, but that power is a limiting factor to growth,” Aftahi said. “As FUFU obtains more power (hosted/owned), we expect cloud hash rate growth, and thus greater visibility and margins from cloud hosting.”

Aftahi said third-quarter results outperformed expectations, driven largely by upside in equipment sales, reinforcing BitFuFu’s optionality across self-mining, cloud hosting and equipment monetization. He highlighted service delivery above 99%, with roughly 33% of revenue coming from new customers, and said increasing outright power ownership could support margin improvement over time, including pilot projects at two Canadian natural gas plants.

“However, as power is added, we expect cloud to take the bulk of that load given the demand dynamics in net dollar retention and customer growth rates,” he said.

Given delays in securing incremental power and the roll-off of a third-party hosting contract, Aftahi reduced forward estimates and shifted valuation to fiscal 2027, applying a 9x multiple to projected Adjusted EBITDA of about US$109-million, leaving the price target unchanged.

Aftahi said BitFuFu should generate US$59-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$466-million in fiscal 2025, with results easing to US$30-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$507-million in fiscal 2026, reflecting more conservative assumptions around power additions and network economics. He said all forward estimates assume a US$100,000 bitcoin price.

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