Buy this cannabis stock, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating and C$5.00 price target on Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CURA) in a Jan. 20 report, after the company released preliminary fourth-quarter results that tracked ahead of guidance saying that the preliminary disclosure “should be viewed positively.”

Curaleaf reported preliminary Q4 revenue of at least $330-million, above Beacon’s prior estimate of $324-million and pre-release consensus of $326-million. Management had guided to low single-digit sequential growth, and the preliminary figure implies at least 4% quarter-over-quarter growth. Preliminary adjusted gross margin of 48.5% was modestly below Beacon’s 49.2% estimate.

He increased his gross profit forecast by $1.0-million to $160.00-million, while leaving his Adjusted EBITDA estimate unchanged at $65.00-million. Curaleaf is expected to report full results by early March.

Stanley noted that early quarterly disclosures are rare in the sector.

“We add that we cannot remember the last time one of our cannabis coverage names pre-released quarterly results,” he said.

The company also announced it is exiting its hemp business and ceasing operations in Missouri, which together contributed about $2-million in revenue in each of the third and fourth quarters. Stanley said the moves were not surprising given regulatory changes and scale considerations.

“We are not surprised by the hemp decision, given legislation enacted in late 2025 prohibiting the sale of hemp-derived THC products containing more than 0.3% THC,” he said, adding that Missouri was a sub-scale market that did not justify further investment.

Looking ahead, Stanley reiterated that refinancing Curaleaf’s $457.00-million of 8.0% senior secured notes due this December remains the key company-specific catalyst.

“We continue to believe that a refinancing of its $457-million in senior secured notes due this December is the most important company-specific catalyst for Curaleaf,” he said, citing successful refinancings by peers and progress toward U.S. federal rescheduling.

On valuation, Stanley said Curaleaf trades at just under 10x his fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, a premium to peers but consistent with historical levels. He added that inclusion in the S&P/TSX Composite and the company’s international operations support a broader investor base and stronger organic growth outlook.

Stanley forecasts Curaleaf will generate approximately $262.00-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $1.275-billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to about $332.00-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $1.385-billion in revenue in fiscal 2026.

Wakefield, Mass.–based Curaleaf is a multinational, vertically integrated cannabis operator with assets across the U.S., Europe, and Australasia.

-30-