2025 was the year crypto grew up, this analyst says

In a Jan. 5 sector outlook entitled Digital Assets, Infrastructure, and Blockchain: Running Against the Wind; Our 2026 Outlook, Roth Capital Markets analyst Darren Aftahi said investors should expect continued momentum in AI-linked digital infrastructure in 2026, even as valuations, financing risk and regulatory scrutiny create a more challenging backdrop.

Aftahi said 2025 marked a turning point, as many companies in Roth’s coverage universe transitioned from being viewed primarily as bitcoin miners to being recognized as AI infrastructure providers, driving outsized share price gains. He expects that shift to continue in 2026, but with investors becoming more selective after last year’s strong returns. In his view, performance will increasingly depend on execution rather than narrative, with stocks “climbing a wall of worry” around AI bubble fears, power availability, government oversight and capital intensity.

Central to Roth’s framework is a distinction between what Aftahi calls “provers” and companies still working toward that status. Provers are firms that have demonstrated they can secure power and land, sign formal leases, lock in supply chains, finance projects and deploy AI data centres at scale with high uptime. To date, Aftahi said only Applied Digital and TeraWulf fully meet those criteria, though several others are close and could qualify by the first half of 2026.

Aftahi said the market’s focus is shifting away from which company will sign the next lease and toward which operators can replicate success across multiple sites. In that sense, speed to market and control over power have become critical differentiators. Based on recent channel checks, he said demand for AI capacity continues to exceed supply by a wide margin, with tenants prioritizing execution certainty over headline pricing.

Within Roth’s coverage, Aftahi reiterated “Buy” ratings on a broad group of digital infrastructure names, including Applied Digital, Bitdeer, Core Scientific , DMG Blockchain Solutions, Hive Digital, Hut 8, Iris Energy, Riot Platforms, TeraWulf and WhiteFiber, with Applied Digital and TeraWulf named as his top picks for 2026. He said investors may be best served by owning a basket of provers and near-provers as execution milestones are met.

Aftahi also addressed the crypto backdrop, arguing that the traditional four-year bitcoin halving cycle may be losing relevance. He said the rise of spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption and broader institutional participation has reduced volatility and tied bitcoin’s performance more closely to macro liquidity conditions. In his view, bitcoin is entering a more mature asset-class phase, with steadier growth and fewer boom-and-bust dynamics, which should support infrastructure providers but reduce the likelihood of another speculative supercycle.

Overall, Aftahi said 2026 will likely reward companies that “control the controllables,” particularly power access and build timelines, as AI infrastructure demand remains strong but investors grow more disciplined about execution risk and capital allocation.

-30-