This Canadian crypto stock is world class, analyst says

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner said Galaxy Digital Holdings (Galaxy Digital Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:GLXY) used a Dec. 11 investor session in New York to clarify the underlying earnings power of its digital asset platform, particularly as the business mix begins to shift toward data centres.

In a note following the session, Toner said ATB continues to believe Galaxy is best evaluated on an Adjusted Gross Profit basis rather than GAAP metrics, arguing that this measure “is the cleanest proxy for core operating earnings of the digital asset business,” as it strips out grossed-up trading activity and impairment noise that can obscure economic reality.

“The firm’s tight risk architecture and sophisticated approach to risk management, bumping up against accounting that is still getting comfortable with digital assets, helps explain the complex nature of Galaxy’s financial reporting,” Toner said.

Toner highlighted that GAAP accounting can materially misrepresent profitability in areas such as wrapped-token trading, where Galaxy may record zero trading margin while still being forced to take impairments that later reverse when asset prices recover. Adjusted Gross Profit, he said, removes these distortions and provides a clearer view of Galaxy’s true spread, fee, and staking economics.

A key focus of the session was Galaxy’s Helios data centre, where the company has entered into a long-term lease with CoreWeave Inc. covering 526 MW of total critical IT load. Toner said the structure features contracted, CPI-linked payments and is expected to generate site-level EBITDA margins of roughly 90%.

“On management’s numbers, this implies potential annual lease revenue in excess of US$1.0-billion and approximately US$0.9-billion of EBITDA once fully ramped,” he said, positioning data centres as a future earnings engine rather than a peripheral asset.

Toner expects Galaxy’s earnings mix to reweight meaningfully between 2026 and 2028. Today, BTC, ETH, and SOL exposure still represents roughly 50% of Galaxy’s net digital asset and venture portfolio, or about US$2.1-billion. As Helios begins contributing, he sees a plausible path for data centres to generate several hundred million dollars of annual EBITDA, potentially rivalling contributions from trading, asset management, and principal investments.

“That shift should compress earnings volatility, raise the quality of cash flows, and support a structurally higher valuation multiple over the medium term,” Toner said.

In prior coverage, Toner raised his price target on Galaxy to US$75.00 from US$60.00 in an Oct. 24 report, maintaining an “Outperform” rating following what he described as record third-quarter results and accelerating momentum in high-performance computing. His sum-of-the-parts valuation applies 18× 2026 adjusted gross profit to the digital asset business, with incremental value attributed to HPC and balance-sheet assets.

“We are constructive on the company’s HPC progress and timelines,” Toner said at the time. “Galaxy is now well-capitalized to fund its development initiatives, and its execution remains undervalued.”

He added that while near-term crypto market volatility remains a risk, Galaxy’s evolving business mix positions it as “one of the best-positioned diversified digital asset platforms globally.”

-30-