Gloo Holdings is a buy, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Richard Baldry reiterated his “Buy” rating and $17.00 price target on Gloo Holdings (Gloo Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GLOO) following what he called a “strong revenue beat” in the company’s third quarter as a public company, saying Gloo’s acquisition-driven scale-up is advancing materially faster than expected.

Gloo Holdings reported fiscal third-quarter 2025 revenue of $32.6-million, well ahead of Baldry’s $24.3-million estimate and nearly matching his $32.9-million forecast for first-quarter fiscal 2026, two quarters earlier than expected. Sequential revenue growth reached 101%, versus Baldry’s modelled 50%, reflecting both acquisition contributions and accelerating organic momentum. While management indicated roughly $2-million of revenue was pulled forward from fiscal Q4, guidance for fourth-quarter revenue of $28-million to $30-million still exceeded Baldry’s prior $26.7-million estimate.

Gloo operates a technology platform that connects Christian churches and faith-based organizations with providers of software, donor services, marketing tools and content. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Boulder, Colorado, the company has expanded through acquisitions while positioning itself as infrastructure for the faith-and-flourishing ecosystem.

Adjusted EBITDA also came in modestly better than expected. Gloo reported an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $19.2-million, improving from $19.7-million in the prior quarter and beating Baldry’s $20.2-million forecast, despite the operational complexity of doubling revenue sequentially while executing an IPO. Management guided to a fourth-quarter Adjusted EBITDA loss range of $18.5-million to $19.5-million, prompting Baldry to narrowly lower his estimate to $19.0-million.

Baldry said execution remains strong as Gloo continues to layer in acquisitions. The recently announced purchase of Westfall Gold, a donor engagement platform with approximately $20-million in annual revenue, represents roughly half of Baldry’s previously assumed fiscal 2026 acquisition contribution before the year has even begun, materially de-risking next year’s outlook. He also noted that Gloo now serves more than 20 customers with annual contract values above $1-million, a sharp step-change from fiscal 2024 revenue of $23-million, with cross-selling and upselling opportunities still largely untapped.

Management reiterated its goal of exiting fiscal 2026 at Adjusted EBITDA positive, which Baldry views as credible given diminishing IPO-related costs, accelerating organic growth signals, accretive acquisitions and growing synergy realization.

The IPO meaningfully strengthened the balance sheet. Post-offering, Gloo is expected to carry approximately $36.7-million in debt, while cash increased from $15.4-million at the end of fiscal Q3 with roughly $73.6-million in IPO proceeds. The company also converted $143.1-million of debt at the time of the offering.

On valuation, Baldry said Gloo shares trade at approximately 3.7x annualized fiscal Q3 revenue, net of post-IPO cash, in line with SaaS peers despite what he sees as a faster multi-year scaling profile. His $17.00 target implies a 5.5x multiple on his unchanged fiscal Q4 2026 run-rate revenue estimate, which he believes is justified given the pace of revenue expansion and improving profitability trajectory.

Baldry expects Gloo to generate $74.8-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $89.0-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to $28.2-million of Adjusted EBITDA on $179.6-million of revenue in fiscal 2026.

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