Buy Anaergia for a double, this analyst says

Paradigm Capital analyst Alexandra Ricci initiated coverage of Anaergia (Anaergia Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:ANRG) on Nov. 30 with a “Buy” rating and 12-month target of $4.75, citing a clearer strategic direction, margin expansion and growing revenue visibility under its reset business model.

Anaergia, headquartered in Burlington, Ont., provides integrated waste-to-value systems that convert organic waste into renewable natural gas (RNG), biochar fertilizer and clean water. Ricci noted that unlike many peers, the company’s technology stack is vertically integrated, allowing it to handle multiple waste streams and deliver end-to-end solutions.

Ricci said the company’s “Anaergia 2.0” reset, completed in 2024 following a strategic review, marks a meaningful shift away from its previous capital-intensive build-own-operate model. The new emphasis on technology and capital sales, supported by a $40.8-million investment from Marny Investissement SA and new leadership, reduces capex requirements and execution risk. Early results show improving gross margins, stronger revenue growth and better operating leverage.

Backlog growth has become a key indicator under the new model. Since reintroducing backlog reporting in Q4/24, Anaergia has grown its backlog from $103-million to $287-million exiting Q3/25. Ricci said the current book provides 12–18 months of capital-sales revenue visibility and 36 months of O&M revenue, with potential for incremental awards from existing customers.

She pointed to several catalysts, including ongoing contract wins, project-billing milestones and continued mix-shift toward higher-margin capital sales and recurring O&M contracts. Ricci expects full-year positive EBITDA in 2026, following a return to positive EBITDA in Q3/25.

Policy support remains a tailwind, she added. Climate legislation, ESG capital inflows and infrastructure integration across Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific are reinforcing RNG demand. Governments in Canada, Japan, Australia and the EU have committed billions toward low-carbon gas infrastructure, giving RNG “strong global momentum.”

Ricci emphasized that Anaergia “is far from a start-up,” having delivered over 230 facilities with its equipment deployed in 1,750 installations worldwide. Its ability to process diverse waste streams differentiates its offering, she said, and the company is expanding its footprint in Europe while building new market pipelines.

Paradigm’s $4.75 target is based on 4.0× EV/Sales using 2026 estimates.

Ricci said Anaergia should generate $(1.9)-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $164.2-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to $7.6-million on $235-million of revenue in fiscal 2026.

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