This analyst loves Rubicon Organics

Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer said 2026 is shaping up to be a strong year for Rubicon Organics (Rubicon Organics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:ROMJ), pointing to the company’s newly licensed Cascadia facility, steady market-share gains in premium categories, and ongoing discipline in operations and spending.

In a November 13 update, he reiterated his “Buy” rating and $1.30 target, saying Rubicon’s expansion plans support “outsized growth” beginning in the back half of next year.

Rubicon reported third-quarter results broadly in line with expectations. Revenue came in at $15.6-million, up 16% year over year and slightly ahead of Gilmer’s estimate, while adjusted EBITDA of $1.7-million matched his forecast. Gross margin held steady at 33.7%, and the company ended the quarter with $6.7-million in cash and $9.3-million in debt.

Gilmer said the recent licensing and planting at the Cascadia facility, which adds 4,500 kg of annual capacity, should materially lift results in the second half of 2026. Market-share trends also remain favourable: Rubicon held 2.0% of the national flower and pre-roll market in Q3, 7.1% in premium flower, and reached #3 in premium vapes with 13.2% share. Its Wildflower topical brand retained the #2 position nationwide, while premium edibles reached 16% share.

The company also strengthened its balance sheet with up to $4-million in new credit facilities from Community Savings Credit Union, and formalized the appointment of Glen Ibbott as CFO. Ibbott had served in the role on an interim basis and was previously CFO at Aurora Cannabis.

Gilmer made only minor estimate changes following what he called an in-line quarter, keeping his 2026 outlook largely intact. He expects the Cascadia facility to be a major growth driver and reiterated that Rubicon’s disciplined cost structure, strong premium-segment presence and expanding production footprint position it well heading into next year.

“The Company remains prudent in operating expenses with a solid balance sheet. The acquisition of the new facility will help drive continued growth next year,” he said.

Rubicon Organics produces certified-organic cannabis at its 125,000-sq.-ft. hybrid greenhouse in Delta, B.C., with expected capacity of 11,000 kg, and at a 47,500-sq.-ft. indoor facility in Hope, B.C., which adds another 4,500 kg. The company markets its brands through a “Good, Better, Best” positioning strategy aimed at premium and organic consumers, a segment Gilmer views as “currently underserved.”

Gilmer said that Rubicon should do C$5.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of C$59.0-million in fiscal 2025. He said those numbers will improve to C$10.1-million on revenue of C$70.0-million in fiscal 2026.

-30-