This analyst loves Calian Group

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff raised his target on Calian Group (Calian Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGY) to $62.00 from $58.00 in a Nov. 27 earnings update, maintaining a “Buy” rating.

He said stronger-than-expected Q4/F25 results and backlog momentum support upside to his FY2026 outlook, with “military tailwinds” emerging across Europe, the U.K., and Canada.

Calian reported Q4 revenue of $203.2-million, gross profit of $69-million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $24.3-million, ahead of ’s estimates and broadly in line with consensus. Year-over-year revenue growth of 12% reflected a mix of organic and acquisitive gains, with defence revenue in Europe and the U.K. rising 51% on new contract wins, including contributions from Mabway.

Goff said the quarter “marks an inflection point” after two weaker periods, noting that strength across Advanced Technologies, Health and Learning continued to offset IT and Cyber Solutions softness. For the full year, Calian generated $774-million in revenue and saw Adjusted EBITDA fall 15% due to ITCS underperformance. Excluding that segment, core EBITDA rose 18%.

The company ended F2025 with a record $1.4-billion backlog, renewed its $350-million credit facility, launched Calian Ventures, completed the InField Scientific acquisition, and secured a major Ka/Q/V-band satellite gateway contract. The firm also repurchased roughly 5% of its float.

Goff said backlog growth and a stronger pipeline, up $122-million in the quarter and $1.1-billion for the year, support his view that FY2026 revenue growth of around 10% is achievable. He lifted his FY2026 revenue and EBITDA forecasts to $852.3-million and $87-million, respectively.

The analyst said Calian continues to evaluate potential divestitures within ITCS but does not expect any to occur before calendar 2026. Defence and space remain the company’s most visible growth engines, and he expects additional NATO-related wins to contribute in the second half of 2026.

Goff noted that Calian trades at 9.0x/7.8x his C2025/26 EV/EBITDA forecasts, below many defence-sector peers. He said improving ITCS margins, steady international defence demand, and ongoing acquisition activity remain the key catalysts heading into FY2026.

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