Should you sell your Riot Platforms stock?

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner said Riot Platforms’ (Riot Platforms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:RIOT) third-quarter results show meaningful operational progress on both its Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing ambitions, pointing to two near-term catalysts that could further re-rate the stock.

Riot reported Q3/25 revenue of US$180.2-million, ahead of the Street at US$171.8-million, with Bitcoin mining revenue of US$160.8-million outpacing Toner’s US$144.1-million estimate as the company mined 1,406 BTC in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA (ex-BTC fair-value adjustments) came in at US$64.1-million, beating Toner’s US$45.8-million forecast, helped by US$30-million of curtailment credits versus his US$10-million expectation. Riot exited the quarter holding 19,297 BTC (worth roughly US$2.2-billion at quarter-end pricing) and US$330.7-million in unrestricted cash and securities.

Toner said management “highlighted four key achievements” in Q3, including the acquisition of an additional 67-acre parcel adjacent to the Corsicana development, completion of the campus-wide data-centre design, completion of the standard data-centre “basis of design,” and continued build-out of its internal data-centre team. He called the start of core-and-shell development on the first two Corsicana buildings, representing 112MW of critical IT load for delivery in Q1/27, a sign of “solid progress” toward becoming a material HPC operator. Toner sees two key catalysts ahead: securing a lease counterparty and completing project debt financing.

Mining margins remained healthy. Riot reported a 40% mining gross margin, or 59% on a non-GAAP basis including power credits, up from 42% in Q3/24. Net cost to mine was US$46,324 per BTC, versus US$35,376 a year earlier, reflecting higher network hash rates. On the HPC side, the company remains on track to complete a 600MW substation at Corsicana, with 400MW targeted for Q1/26 and 200MW in H2/26. Toner noted that critical substation equipment is already arriving, “significantly de-risking the timeline for power availability.”

Riot intends to cut stock-based compensation to roughly US$8-million per quarter from about US$30-million, and Toner highlighted continued strength in the engineering division, with backlog rising to US$159.6-million, up US$40.9-million sequentially.

Toner previously (Oct. 28, before results) reiterated an “Outperform” rating and US$18.00 one-year target.

He said Riot should generate US$164.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $678.7-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to $383.8-million on $932.2-million in fiscal 2026.

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