This analyst just raised his price target on META stock

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni maintained a “Buy” “on weakness” rating on Meta Platforms (Meta Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:META) and nudged his 12-month target to US $845.00 (from $835.00) in an Oct. 30 note following a volatile third quarter that saw the stock fall despite revenue upside.

Meta shares slid about 8% after hours as higher-than-expected tax expenses drove a sizeable EPS miss. Kulkarni called the quarter “noisy,” with solid top-line momentum overshadowed by rising capital intensity and a multiyear investment cycle that will pressure free cash flow. Still, he argued that the pullback offers an entry point into “one of the top long-term AI winners,” now trading at roughly 20x 2026E EPS.

Management raised the low end of its 2025 CapEx and OpEx ranges, and early commentary on 2026 suggests steeper spending, both for AI compute and Reality Labs, creating what Kulkarni described as an “air-pocket in sentiment” over the next 12–18 months. He estimates 2026 CapEx will exceed US$105-billion, which would leave free cash flow below US$15-billion.

Advertising trends remained healthy, with Q3 ad revenue growth strongest in Europe and Rest of World at +29% and +32% year-over-year, respectively. Impression growth of +14% and a 10% increase in ad pricing reflect gains from Meta’s AI-driven ad ranking, content recommendations and cross-surface performance improvements.

Kulkarni said the macro ad backdrop remains “generally positive,” with no material drag yet from tariffs or de-minimis rule changes.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg outlined Meta’s path toward artificial general intelligence, coined internally as “Superintelligence,” and positioned the company to benefit regardless of timing. He noted Meta is accelerating compute capacity and talent now to avoid falling behind, with model-related announcements expected in the coming months.

Kulkarni said the strategy signals “front-loading” of costs but expands long-term upside across Meta AI, AR glasses and the broader product ecosystem.

Reality Labs continues to post substantial losses at over US$(4.4)-billion in the quarter, with 4Q revenue expected to decline year-over-year. Meta highlighted strong early demand for limited-release AR glasses, but scaling production will require additional investment.

Kulkarni said Meta should post $102.04-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on $200.07-billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, improving to $120.72-billion on $236.71-billion in fiscal 2026.

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