This analyst just hiked his price target on Tantalus Systems

Haywood Capital Markets analyst Gianluca Tucci raised his target price on Tantalus Systems (Tantalus Systems Holding Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:GRID) to C$6.50 from C$4.50 in an Oct. 28 report, maintaining a “Buy” rating.

The move reflects increased confidence in the company’s scaling profile.

Tucci said “Tantalus is executing a growth story in a favourable grid-modernization environment,” highlighting improving profitability, record order momentum and evidence of operating leverage.

He pointed to Q2 performance, revenue up 22% year-over-year to $13-million, gross margin of 53% and positive adjusted EBITDA, as reinforcing the trajectory into Q3/25 results on November 12. Haywood is looking for Q3 revenue of $13.3-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $0.4-million, driven by further mix shift toward software and recurring revenue, which reached ~25% of total in Q2.

Tucci said liquidity of nearly $20-million and expanding ARR provide a platform for “sustained double-digit growth, normalized margin expansion, and consistent profitability.”

The new target price incorporates a revised 20% long-term revenue growth assumption (from 15%) for 2029-2031, a higher terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 20x (from 16.5x) and a reduced discount rate of 12.5% (from 13%), reflecting better financial positioning.

Tucci continues to view the TRUSense Gateway as the central driver of value creation as utilities accelerate grid-modernization investment.

“As the proliferation of connected devices adds strain to existing infrastructure, GRID stands to benefit,” he said, citing tailwinds from AI and data-centre power demands.

Tucci said that Tantalus should post $2.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $52.8-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $3.6-million on $60.7-million in 2026.

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