Lyft just won a price target raise at this bank

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni raised his target price on Lyft (Lyft Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:LYFT) to US $25.00 from $19.00 in an Oct. 29 report ahead of Q3 results on Nov. 5, maintaining a “Buy” rating.

Kulkarni said Lyft shares have risen about 50% since August, supported by the Waymo partnership announcement, potential insurance savings in California and governance changes, including the end of dual-class shares.

“We believe there is a pathway for Lyft’s shares to exceed $30 over the medium term as valuation remains reasonable, and consistent execution could provide investors greater conviction that Lyft can reach $1bn in EBITDA, per its investor day targets,” he said.

Roth modestly raised its 2025 and 2026 Gross Bookings assumptions, lifting EBITDA estimates by mid-single digits. The new US$25 target is based on 15.0x 2026E EBITDA and implies roughly 10.0x 2026E free cash flow. Lyft shares are up 60% year-to-date (S&P 500 +15%) and currently trade at about 11x 2026E EBITDA, near the upper-middle of their 12-month valuation range.

On pricing, Kulkarni expects Q3 to look similar to Q2 as insurance cost inflation continues to moderate.

“Pricing increased less than mgmt. expected in 2Q, being roughly flat QoQ and slightly up YoY, which is expected to be reflective of 3Q as well.”

He said annual insurance renewals are largely finalized by October and Lyft is “optimistic that insurance cost inflation… could moderate further to MSD levels in some regions.”

There is a potential impact from California’s SB 371, which took effect Oct. 3 and reduces required uninsured coverage from US$1-million to US$300,000 starting Jan. 1, 2026. While Lyft has not quantified the savings, the CEO recently characterized the benefit as “hundreds of millions.” Kulkarni said Lyft’s higher California exposure relative to Uber could create a greater uplift.

He rated Lyft’s robotaxi progress at “3.5 stars,” citing AV pilots with May Mobility in Atlanta, a planned Waymo launch in Nashville in 2026, and European expansion via the Freenow acquisition. He said partnerships such as Flexdrive and Nexar give Lyft a credible platform, though AV progress still trails Uber and Waymo.

Kulkarni said Lyft’s path to US$1-billion in 2027 EBITDA remains possible but will require multiple tailwinds to align, including AV monetization, further insurance reform and profitable international expansion.

Kulkarni said Lyft should post US$514-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $6.59-billion in fiscal 2025, improving to US $678-million on $7.63-billion in 2026.

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