Is Genasys stock a buy?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Scott Searle reiterated a “Buy” rating and US$4.50 price target on Genasys (Genasys Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GNSS) in a Sept. 30 update, pointing to a meaningful milestone with the company’s first order under the U.S. Army’s Common Remotely Operated Weapon Stations (CROWS) program.

After the close on Sept. 29, Genasys disclosed a US$9-million Long Range Acoustic Device (LRAD) order tied to CROWS.

“While expected, this is meaningful, in our opinion, as it should provide US$10–15-million of annual sales and enable GNSS to maintain sustained profitability in the coming quarters,” Searle wrote.

He views the award as the opening step in what could be a decade-long revenue stream of more than US$150-million as the current CROWS refresh retrofits about one-third of the U.S. military’s 17,000 vehicles.

“This current iteration of CROWS is expected to retrofit ~one-third of ~17k military vehicles for a US$150M+ opportunity over the next decade (ahead the legacy US$113M contract),” Searle said. He added that the LRAD integration provides operators with an escalation-of-force capability that fits naturally with the Army’s program requirements.

He also highlighted the near-term financial benefits.

“The award provides needed near-term cash flow, which should be further complemented by near-term PREPA dam completions,” he said, referring to projects with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. At the same time, he cautioned that “the negative offset is the potential government shutdown, which would further delay US$9-million of existing software wins that await funding (US$3-million ARR).”

Looking beyond the CROWS award, Searle pointed to a US$60-million-plus backlog and improving visibility on PREPA rollouts as supporting factors for his outlook

He forecasts an Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$14.1-million on revenue of US$43.9-million in fiscal 2025, improving to EBITDA of US$13.8-million on revenue of US$83-million in fiscal 2026.

“While execution risks remain, we believe this award solidifies Genasys’s path to sustained profitability and strengthens its positioning with U.S. defence customers,” Searle said.

Based in San Diego, Genasys provides critical communications systems. Its LRAD products are used for long-range hailing and mass notification, while its Genasys Protect platform supports emergency alerting, evacuations and secure collaboration.

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