Is Rubrik stock a buy right now?

In a March 11 earnings preview, Roth Capital Partners analyst Taz Koujalgi said channel checks on Rubrik (Rubrik Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:RBRK) were positive heading into its fourth-quarter results, with momentum improving in the January quarter compared with October, although aggressive pricing from competitors remains a factor.

Koujalgi said feedback from checks improved to “above plan by 5–9%” at the end of January from “above plan by 2–5%” in the prior quarter, with win rates ticking higher. However, pricing pressure from rivals such as Veeam Software and Commvault Systems Inc. remains aggressive.

The analyst said buy-side expectations for fiscal Q4 2026 net new annual recurring revenue (NNARR) vary widely but are generally clustered around $110-million to $112-million, a level he believes would support the stock at current valuations.

Based on historical quarterly seasonality and recent growth trends, Koujalgi estimates Q4 NNARR could land in the $109-million to $114-million range, implying a beat of roughly $15-million to $20-million above the company’s implied guidance.

Looking ahead, Koujalgi sees a slight risk that fiscal 2027 ARR guidance could come in just below Street expectations, though he believes downside risk is limited given the stock’s recent decline and valuation. Rubrik shares are down roughly 40% over the past three months, compared with a roughly 25% drop in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF over the same period.

The stock currently trades at about 0.20x CY2027 EV/S/g, compared with a median of roughly 0.40x across Koujalgi’s coverage universe, suggesting risk-reward remains tilted to the upside despite near-term uncertainty around guidance.

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