Plug Power is still under-appreciated by investors, analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin maintained his “Buy” rating and US$3.50 target price on Plug Power (Plug Power Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PLUG) in an Aug. 21 report, citing encouraging signs from an investor tour of the company’s Vista facility in Slingerlands, N.Y., and optimism around major electrolyzer projects.

“The tempo of activity on the production floor was positive with large materials handling orders in fulfillment, plus substantial electrolyzer activity and a GenSure project for a rail customer,” Irwin said. “We think investors under-appreciate the importance of the three elephant-sized electrolyzer projects Plug is pursuing, as just one would load production for a few years and support +EBITDA. Gross margins and cash flow are probably tracking well towards recent targets.”

Roth hosted the tour and met with chief executive officer Andy Marsh and chief financial officer Paul Middleton. Irwin said Plug’s materials handling business appears to be rebounding on improved funding visibility from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act’s 48E clean energy credit. Updated 48E terms allow the full 30% investment tax credit for qualified fuel-cell property that begins construction between 2026 and 2032. “We saw a couple of large materials handling orders in process of fulfillment on the production floor, giving confidence to our thesis. Electrolyzer and GenSure activity also seems to be benefiting,” he said.

Plug Power, headquartered in Latham, N.Y., designs and manufactures hydrogen fuel-cell systems used in forklifts and other equipment across large manufacturing and distribution facilities in North America.

Irwin pointed to the scale of three major electrolyzer projects, in Spain, Finland, and Australia, as potentially transformative.

“The 3GW Allied Green Ammonia project in Australia aims for committed financing later this year, which would present a major catalyst,” he said. “On the 2Q25 call, management confirmed the electrolyzer pipeline is strong, and we are optimistic the company could announce Cape Buffalo-sized agreements in 2H25.”

He also noted engagement from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, which continues to work with Plug despite cancelling many other facilities.

“Greg Beard, who assumed the leadership role at LPO in May, spent a decade at Apollo and has about 30 years’ experience in energy investment,” Irwin said. “We believe management is intently focused on cementing an external equity partnership for the Texas electrolyzer and satisfying updated disbursement conditions/terms with DOE.”

Cash flow could also improve in the second half of 2025, he said, with benefits from power purchase agreement recovery, inventory liquidation, credit sales, and positive margins on multiple projects. Plug ended the second quarter with US$140-million in unrestricted cash and US$876-million in total cash. Cash burn of US$230-million compared with US$146-million in Q4 2024 and US$356-million in Q2 2024. The company expects restructuring efforts to yield substantial progress by year-end 2025.

Irwin expects Plug Power to post 2025 Adjusted EBITDA of negative US$400.0-million on revenue of US$733.9-million, versus his prior forecast of negative US$350.0-million and US$700.0-million, respectively. For 2026, he sees improvement to negative US$215.0-million on revenue of US$850.0-million

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