Is HIVE Digital Technologies still a buy?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Darren Aftahi noted in an August 15 report that HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE Digital Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:HIVE) beat fiscal Q1 2026 expectations with stronger mining revenue, up 45% sequentially.

The company is scaling rapidly toward 15 EH/s and is targeting 25 EH/s by November 2025, with all machines fully paid for. At that level, bitcoin economics imply about $545-million in run-rate revenue and $335-million in margin, or roughly 75% above current levels.

Aftahi maintained his “Buy” rating on the stock and kept his 12-month price target at $6.00.

“We still believe a larger catalyst lies in execution and scale of potential HPC/AI sites, such as repurposing data centers in Europe, which we believe would help bring a re-rating,” he said.

Aftahi said HIVE’s fiscal first-quarter hash rate rose nearly 80% quarter over quarter to 15 EH/s, with the company still on track to reach 25 EH/s in November.

“Overall, the feat of this scale and execution is impressive, which should mean much of the BTC related equity issuance may be behind HIVE being fully funded to 25 EH/s post raising ~$121M via its ATM (June qtr. plus post qtr. issuance) and BTC holdings (which may be pledged for gains),” he said.

He added that a shift in focus toward HPC and AI after hitting the 25 EH/s target would likely be welcomed by investors, especially if HIVE can repurpose some of its European data centres. “Although we still favour HPC colocation relative to verticalized cloud,” he said.

HIVE reported fiscal Q1 2026 revenue about 2% above forecasts, with mining revenue stronger than expected and Adjusted EBITDA about $33-million above estimates. Adjusted gross margin was about 35%, roughly 500 basis points lower than expected, while the all-in cost to mine was about $47,000. Mining revenue grew about 142% year over year and 45% sequentially, with AI cloud revenue up about 60% quarter over quarter.

General and administrative costs were in line with expectations, while Adjusted EBITDA was about $44.6-million, including revaluations of about $23-million not reflected in the firm’s model.

The company ended the quarter with about $24.6-million in cash, or $106-million when including digital assets, after raising about $68-million through its ATM program. Post quarter, the company raised another $53-million, with shares outstanding rising to about 229 million. HIVE held about 435 BTC at quarter-end, with about 1,565 BTC pledged for machine purchases.

Aftahi said the company’s ability to scale Paraguay operations this year has been key, and with machines to reach 25 EH/s already paid for, the target “is nearly set in stone.”

He revised his model to reflect a more cautious ramp for the AI cloud business, now projecting about $100-million in annual recurring revenue by fiscal Q2 2027. He said potential upside could come from accelerating the energizing of the company’s 5.5MW Toronto data centre or repurposing Swedish sites for HPC and AI workloads.

He now expects the company to generate $144.5-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $302.8-million in fiscal 2026. That compares with his prior estimates of $114.2-million and $304.2-million, representing an increase of about 27% for EBITDA and a slight 0.5% decline for revenue.

For fiscal 2027, he projects Adjusted EBITDA of $228.0-million on revenue of $480.9-million, down modestly from his earlier forecast of $233.3-million and $485.6-million. That reflects decreases of about 2% and 1%, respectively.

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