Is Groupon stock a buy right now?

Groupon’s (Groupon Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:GRPN) second-quarter earnings, expected in late July or early August, could further boost the company’s share price, according to Roth Capital Markets analyst Sean McGowan. In a July 21 note, McGowan said investor confidence has been rising as Groupon’s turnaround strategy takes hold, and he anticipates Q2 results will show continued acceleration in revenue momentum.

He is maintaining his “Buy” rating and $47.00 price target.

McGowan expects Groupon to show faster growth in its local business, both in North America and internationally. He also expects the company to continue keeping a tight rein on spending. North American Local is Groupon’s biggest segment, making up 71% of its total revenue in 2024.

“We expect Groupon to post growth in N.A. Local revenues of 2% in 2Q25 and believe surprises are more likely to be to the upside,” he said.

North American Local revenue has been improving in recent quarters. It was down 8% in Q3 2024, stayed flat in Q4, and was down just 1% in Q1 2025.

“We expect billings growth to accelerate more, offset by previously discussed reductions in the ‘take rate’ related to greater consumer redemptions, which we view as a positive for long-term growth,” McGowan said

The numbers for North American Local are improving. Revenue fell 8% in the third quarter of 2024, didn’t change in the fourth quarter, and was only down 1% in the first quarter of 2025.

“However, these figures include Italy, where Groupon discontinued local business in 2Q24,” he said.

Groupon’s international business is showing signs of a turnaround. Excluding Italy, revenue was down slightly in Q3 2024, then grew in both Q4 and Q1 2025.

Q2, 2025 will be the first quarter where Italy’s exit won’t weigh down results, the analyst noted.

McGowan also sees signs of progress in other countries: “Many international markets are trending positively, and some of the markets in Spain, where the company instituted new initiatives sooner, have been showing strong double-digit positive growth in billings, with some markets returning to levels last reached back in 2019, before the pandemic.”

There’s been no update yet on whether Groupon plans to sell its 1.8% stake in SumUp. “As GRPN’s share price rises, it becomes a somewhat smaller piece of the total value puzzle, but we still see this as a possible catalyst,” McGowan said. His research suggests SumUp is still performing well and may go public in the next 18 months. Before doing that, it might buy out minority shareholders like Groupon, which could give Groupon a cash boost of $150-million or more.

McGowan projects Groupon will post $75.0-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $505.0-million in revenue in fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2026, he sees performance improving to $109.5-million in EBITDA on $569.2-million in revenue.

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