Bitcoin Treasury Corporation is a buy, Research Capital says

Research Capital analyst Greg McLeish initiated coverage of Bitcoin Treasury Corporation (Bitcoin Treasury Corporation Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:BTCT) with a “Buy” rating and a $21.50 target in a July 29 report. The newly listed Canadian company, formed through a $125-million reverse takeover in June 2025, aims to meet rising institutional demand for Bitcoin-focused financial services. As of June, it holds 771.37 BTC and is pursuing a strategy to grow Bitcoin-per-share value through active treasury management.

McLeish said Bitcoin Treasury offers exposure to long-term Bitcoin appreciation, with additional yield from lending and trading operations.

“Its lending model enables collateralized BTC-denominated loans, while trading services are expected to generate spreads from large-block institutional transactions,” he said. “All crypto assets are held in 100 percent cold storage with institutional custodians Coinbase and Anchorage, underscoring BTCT’s focus on security and risk mitigation. In our view, BTCT combines the capital discipline of a hard asset treasury vehicle with the earning power of a fintech lender, delivering a structurally advantaged model designed to compound Bitcoin/share over time.”

Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a distinct institutional and sovereign asset, according to Research Capital. Its appeal is driven by macroeconomic challenges such as sovereign debt, inflation, and negative real yields. With a fixed supply, decentralized design, and portability, Bitcoin serves as a digital alternative to gold. It has outperformed all major asset classes over the past decade and shows low correlation with traditional markets, providing portfolio diversification and asymmetric upside.

Recent developments, including U.S.-listed spot ETFs, treasury adoption by firms like Strategy and Metaplanet, and sovereign efforts such as El Salvador’s Bitcoin legal tender law, further support Bitcoin’s role in global finance. McLeish believes Bitcoin’s growing institutional acceptance signals a major shift and supports its position as a high-conviction asset in times of monetary instability.

“BTCT aims to establish itself as Canada’s premier Bitcoin balance sheet company, specializing in select institutional-grade Bitcoin financial services,” he said. “The company is structurally aligned with Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation, combining an uncapped BTC treasury strategy with scalable revenue streams from lending, liquidity, and collateral. This dual-pronged model, asset growth plus operating income, positions BTCT as both a Bitcoin holding company and an institutional fintech platform, with success measured in BTC accumulation and BTC/share growth.”

McLeish said his $21.50 target price for Bitcoin Treasury is based on a year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecast of US$200,000 and a 1.25× price-to-net asset value multiple. This reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s continued monetization and BTCT’s strategy to grow value through disciplined treasury management, operating leverage, and Bitcoin-denominated yields. The company has used most of its $125 million capital raise to buy 771.37 BTC at an average cost of US$107,217. At the current spot price of US$117,800, that Bitcoin is worth $123.6-million, or $10.16 per share, above the current share price of $9.15.

“This equates to a 0.90× NAV on a fully diluted basis, which we view as a temporary mispricing and a compelling entry point for investors seeking institutional-grade Bitcoin exposure with embedded upside as the company scales,” McLeish said.

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