Should you own IMAX stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Eric Handler raised his price target on IMAX (IMAX Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:IMAX) to $36 from $32 in a June 13 note, following meetings with senior management that reinforced confidence in the company’s growth outlook.

He is maintaining his “buy” rating.

Handler said IMAX is on pace to meet or exceed its 2025 global box office guidance of $1.2-billion, with rising market share, stronger theatre utilization, and continued demand for new systems in high-performing markets supporting the bullish view.

IMAX’s 2025 global box office guidance of $1.2-billion marks a projected 33% year-over-year increase and would set a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.1-billion record set in 2019. Strong Q1 results were led by Ne Zha 2, which has grossed nearly $170-million globally, including $160-million in China. For Q2, Roth estimates box office revenue at $202-million so far and expects it to meet or slightly exceed the ~$290-million consensus, helped by strong Hollywood releases like A Minecraft Movie (>$27M), Sinners (>$26M), Thunderbolts (>$30M), and Mission: Impossible (>$70M).

IMAX’s global market share rose to 3.5% in Q1 2025, up from 3.1% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2019. In North America, its trailing 12-month market share hit 4.1%, up about 100 basis points from 2019. In China, share reached a record 5.4% in Q1 2025, compared to under 4% in 2018–2019. Outside of China, international market share rose to 2.0% in 2024 from 1.7% in 2019.

“Market share gains have been attributable to a combination of: (1) a growing preference among consumers for a premium experience when going to a theatre; (2) the ability to leverage strong brand recognition from Filmed for IMAX promotions; and (3) an increasing volume of local language releases,” Handler said.

The Filmed for IMAX initiative is helping boost market share, with Sinners and Mission: Impossible each capturing over 20% of the domestic box office during their runs. Upcoming titles such as F1, Superman: Legacy, and Fantastic Four: First Steps were also shot with IMAX cameras. In China, a slate of local-language films is set to release, including Made in Yiwu I and Donji Island, both filmed using IMAX technology. With China’s box office recovering, local-language films now make up a growing portion of IMAX’s global box office, tracking in the mid- to high-20% range, up from 21% in 2023 and 15% in 2022, with expectations that it could reach 30% over time.

“Non-traditional content is working during shoulder periods,” Handler said. “Theatre efficiency has improved, especially during mid-week and traditionally slow portions of the calendar as IMAX has supplemented its blockbuster movie content with monthly A24 Films re-releases (Ex Machina, Midsommar, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Lighthouse, etc). Music has also proven beneficial in the last year, with Becoming Led Zeppelin, Pink Floyd at Pompeii, and Queen Rock Montreal. IMAX has been talking with music companies about more frequent release opportunities.”

“IMAX’s installed base of 1,738 systems should be able to grow at a MSD pace for at least the next few years,” Handler said. “The contracted backlog of 516 systems (+16% y/y) is expanding in markets with above average per screen averages (PSA) such as Australia, Japan, Western Europe, and the U.S. The recent Australia deal with EVT for four systems is especially notable as it will double IMAX’s screen count in the country within two years. This market boasts the company’s highest PSA at ~$4.5mn annually. Australia ranks as IMAX’s 10th largest market despite its small footprint.”

Handler expects IMAX to generate $173.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $408.8-million in revenue for fiscal 2025, rising to $188.4-million in EBITDA on $436.6-million in revenue in 2026.

Roth raised its price target from $32 to $36, applying a 13x multiple to its 2025 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, citing stronger confidence in IMAX’s market position and earnings momentum.

-30-