Should you hold on to your Lyft stock?

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni maintained a “Neutral” rating and US$16.00 price target on Lyft (Lyft Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:LYFT) in a June 20 report, noting short-term caution while expressing a more positive medium-term outlook.

Lyft is a transportation company based in San Francisco that operates a ride-hailing platform. It also offers bike and scooter rentals for short trips, information on public transit options, and car rentals.

“We are tweaking lower our model assumptions 2H25 for LYFT,”Kulkarni said. “We maintain a modestly constructive bias on LYFT amid ongoing volatility, supported by recent intra-quarter developments including stable pricing trends, AV testing progress, and geographic expansion. However, uncertainty around market share shifts to Waymo and potential rider attrition following the Delta partnership loss could weigh on near-term fundamentals and KPIs.”

Kulkarni said Lyft has seen encouraging trends in the second quarter, with pricing stability continuing after challenges in Q4 2024. The company achieved over 10% incentive efficiency in 2024, surpassing its long-term target, supported by platform upgrades and an expanded range of ride types and markets. Earlier this month, Lyft began autonomous vehicle testing with May Mobility in Atlanta, ahead of a planned summer launch.

“In a slower pricing growth environment due to abating insurance increases, we believe LYFT has demonstrated efficiency in managing a balanced, dynamic marketplace,” he said. “We view the company’s ongoing platform and product improvements as integral to a sturdy foundation to manage ride-hailing ecosystem shifts.”

Kulkarni is adjusting third-quarter estimates to reflect an expected 2% drop in gross bookings and 1% decline in rides due to the loss of the Delta partnership, along with potential market share pressure from Google’s Waymo, which recently received approval to begin testing in New York City.

“LYFT’s momentum, including growth in under-penetrated cities, is constructive; however, 2H GB headwinds and underlying rider acquisition outlook weigh on near-term upside,” he said.

Kulkarni thinks that Lyft will report earnings per share of $0.80 on revenue of $6,517.6-million in fiscal 2025, down from previous estimates of $0.85 EPS and $6,634.1-million in revenue. For fiscal 2026, he expects EPS to rise slightly to $0.82 on revenue of $7,430.9-million, both also revised downward from prior forecasts of $0.84 EPS and $7,562.7-million in revenue.

He said Lyft’s international ambitions are making solid progress. The FREENOW acquisition, expected to close in the second half of 2025, represents about $1.12-billion in gross bookings and nearly doubles Lyft’s addressable market.

“LYFT recently launched operations in Montreal, and our conversations with industry folks indicate that the FREENOW acquisition provides a rapid European expansion opportunity,” he said.

FREENOW adds European taxi operations experience, fleet management technology, and established relationships with regulators, unions, and fleet operators. Lyft contributes its ride-hailing platform and user features. Combined, the companies serve over 50-million annual riders. The integration is expected to improve service quality, fleet coordination, and expand opportunities for partners.

“We’re on an ambitious path to build the best, most customer-obsessed mobility platform in the world, and entering Europe is an important step in our growth journey,” said David Risher, CEO of Lyft. “We found the perfect partner in FREENOW and can learn a lot from the team. FREENOW’s local-first approach mirrors Lyft’s values and embodies our purpose — to serve and connect.”

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