Here’s what to expect from Haivision’s Q2 results

Paradigm Capital analyst Daniel Rosenberg expects Haivision Systems (Haivision Systems Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:HAI) to post Q2 2025 revenue of $30.7-million, down 10% year over year but in line with consensus, when it reports after markets close on Wednesday.

In a June 10 note, Rosenberg forecast Adjusted EBITDA of $3.3-million, slightly above the $2.8-million consensus, as the company continues to focus on margin improvements. He said investor attention will be on the outlook for growth and margin mix, particularly with a five-year, $82-million U.S. Navy contract set to begin in the second half of the year.

“Our (EBITDA) estimate represents a healthy margin of 10.9%, as the company streamlined operations over the past few years to maximize margins and last year hit 16%,” Rosenberg said. “On the call we will be looking for: 1) outlook for a return to growth. While U.S. government uncertainty remains, Haivision also secured a major 5-year $82M contract with the Navy that kicks off in H2. Additionally, global defense spending has been on a tear, growing 9.4% y/y to US$2.72T in 2024 (Reuters), which could further support growth for Haivision; and 2) margins. With revenue shifting to the Navy contract, we want to better understand the overall margin mix.”

In February, Brightcove, an OTT streaming service, was acquired for US$233-million by Italy-based tech firm Bending Spoons, a 90% premium to its 60-day average, at roughly 1x revenue. While that’s higher than Haivision’s current valuation, Rosenberg notes Brightcove is a lower-quality business, with gross margins around 60%, 13 points below Haivision, and negative EBITDA margins.

“HAI ended last quarter with a healthy $16.6M in cash and $7.2M in debt, leaving it well capitalized,” Rosenberg said. “The company has made about seven acquisitions in its history but has been quiet since 2022.”

Haivision shares are up 14% year-to-date, trading at 0.9x estimated 2026 revenue and 6.2x EBITDA, well below the peer median of 2.0x and 13.4x.

“We continue to view Haivision’s encoders as a leading technology in the space, as evidenced by major contract wins with the U.S. government and partnerships with the likes of L3Harris,” Rosenberg said. “We think near-term tariff risks are present in the upcoming quarter, but H2 should provide more clarity around the growth outlook.”

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