What to expect from RIOT Platforms Q1

Ahead of the company’s first quarter results, ATB Capital analyst Martin Toner has maintained his “Outperform” rating on RIOT Platforms (RIOT Platforms Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:RIOT).

On May 1, after market close RIOT will report its Q1, 2025 results.

The analyst detailed his expectations for the quarter.

“RIOT will report Q1/25 results on May 1, after market close. RIOT ended the quarter with a deployed hash rate of 33.7 EH/s, up from 31.5 EH/s as of Q4/24 end. RIOT also holds 19,223 BTC as of quarter end, valued at ~$1.8bn at today’s BTC price of ~US$95,000. We update our estimates ahead of Q1/25 results, slightly raising our EH/sassumption, while inputting a lower-than-expected BTC price (from $97k average to $91k average in Q1) and slightly higher energy costs (from $0.035 per kWh to an average of $0.036 per kWh over the quarter). As a result, we raise our Q1/25 revenue estimate by $7.0mm to $159.2mm (in-line with consensus), while raising our SG&A assumptions by $19.1mm for Q1. As a result, our adj. EBITDA estimate is lowered to $31.0mm (from $45.1mm prior), relative to $41.0mm consensus. At a P/B valuation of ~0.9x, we continue to see HPC upside for the name—in March 2025, RIOT announced that its feasibility study in relation to using the 600MW of capacity at Corsicana for HPC/AI uses, was completed. We are encouraged by the prospect of a potential ~600MW HPC build-out at Corsicana, though note that HPC ambitions remain in the early stages. RIOT ended last quarter with ~$277mm in cash (incl. restricted cash), prior to April’s $100mm debt raise (here) and the $129mm Rhodium asset acquisition in March (here). Given a cash burn of ~$115mm last quarter, we believe RIOT will need to raise additional capital to continue funding its operations, and forecast 385mm shares outstanding as of 2025 end (from 350mm as of 2024 end).”

In a research update to clients April 29, Toner maintained his “Outperform” rating and one-year price target of (US) $19.00 on RIOT.

“Our price target is based on a sum-of-the- parts (SOTP) and multiples-based approach. Our 12-month price target is based on 7.0x RIOT’s 2026 EBITDA (before FV adjustments),” the analyst added.