First Solar stock: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Roth Capital Partners analyst Philip Shen maintained his “Buy” rating and US$300.00 target on First Solar (First Solar, Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FSLR) despite lowering his revenue and earnings forecasts, saying the company should benefit from higher solar panel prices following U.S. trade restrictions.

Shen thinks First Solar’s third-quarter results were mixed, with stronger-than-expected profitability offset by weaker revenue and solar module bookings.

First Solar reported Q3 revenue of US$1.23-billion, approximately 6% below consensus, while Adjusted EBITDA of US$744-million exceeded Roth’s US$692.6-million estimate. The company booked 2.7 gigawatts of solar modules, although U.S. selling prices remained at approximately US$0.36 per watt, below expectations of US$0.373.

In his Oct 30 report, Shen argued that the disappointing pricing reflects contracts negotiated before the introduction of Section 232 trade measures, which have strengthened the competitive position of U.S. solar manufacturers. “Since the announcement of 232, we have revised and increased our pricing,” First Solar management said during its earnings call.

However, the analyst believes the benefits will take time to appear in new orders and financial results.

Management indicated that approximately four gigawatts of previously negotiated contracts could still be booked at prices established before the trade measures, including two gigawatts over the next five months. “We see potential for FSLR pricing to play out as a slow burn to the upside as the industry continues to go through price discovery through H1’27,” Shen said.

He said developers are also delaying procurement decisions because of permitting challenges, financing costs, uncertainty surrounding government policy and higher battery costs.

First Solar lowered its 2026 revenue guidance to US$4.6-billion to US$4.9-billion and its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to US$2.55-billion to US$2.75-billion.

Shen reduced his 2026 revenue forecast to US$4.75-billion from US$5.06-billion and his Adjusted EBITDA estimate to US$2.65-billion from US$2.70-billion. For 2027, he lowered his revenue estimate to US$5.46-billion from US$5.85-billion and his Adjusted EBITDA forecast to US$3.07-billion from US$3.33-billion.

Despite the revisions, Shen believes First Solar’s valuation remains attractive at approximately six times estimated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA.

He said continued enforcement of U.S. trade restrictions could support higher domestic solar panel prices, while the company’s newly authorized US$500-million share repurchase program provides additional support for shareholders. Shen also sees potential upside if Congress extends investment tax credits or Section 45X manufacturing incentives.

First Solar ended Q3 with approximately US$1.5-billion in net cash.

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