Is Galaxy Digital Holdings a buy right now?

Galaxy Digital (Galaxy Digital Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:GLXY) reported a wider-than-expected Q1 loss of $295-million, but ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner says the company’s structural overhaul, U.S. listing, and growing high-performance computing operations signal long-term upside.

In a May 19 update, Toner reiterated his “Outperform” rating and $42.00 target, noting the company’s 2025 earnings could hit $294.7-million before a projected downturn in 2026 as the Bitcoin cycle peaks.

Before markets opened on May 12, Galaxy Digital reported a Q1 2025 net loss of $295-million, wider than the $215.1-million loss expected by analysts but close to ATB’s estimate of $299.4-million. The company also posted partner equity of $1.9-billion, below ATB’s forecast of $2.04-billion.

“We note that during the quarter, GLXY shifted from its previous three operating business segments—Global Markets, Asset Management, and Digital Infrastructure—to a new consolidated structure with two operating segments (Digital Assets and Data Center) and one corporate segment,” Toner said in his May 19 company update. “GLXY is also adopting US GAAP standards beginning in Q1, reflecting its listing on the Nasdaq and re-domiciling to the U.S. Management emphasized that adj. gross profit will be a more meaningful metric for evaluating the Digital Assets segment performance and going forward. The release highlighted three key tailwinds for GLXY: i) GLXY’s ongoing HPC/AI build at Helios, which remains on track for 133 MW to be turned on in 2026 as part of the Phase I CoreWeave (CRWV-O, NR) lease.”

Toner said management may also be planning to grow its high-performance computing (HPC) operations, having looked at about 40 possible data center sites across the U.S., each averaging around 500 MW. He also noted the company’s May 16 Nasdaq listing, which could improve access to capital, and the recent strength in crypto markets, with Bitcoin up about 21% quarter-to-date.

“We like management’s HPC execution to date, with project financing expected to close in the ‘coming weeks,’” the analyst wrote. “In our view, numerous tailwinds point to value creation and further upside for Galaxy Digital shareholders. We updated our model to reflect GLXY’s new segments and GAAP reporting metrics and now value GLXY’s current operations using a 15x multiple on 2026 Digital Assets adj. gross profit. We maintain our Outperform rating and $42.00 PT on the stock.”

ATB revised its model to account for Galaxy Digital’s new business segments and its switch to GAAP accounting. The firm’s 2025 and 2026 estimates assume Bitcoin’s bull run continues through 2025, ending the year at around $117,000 before the cycle peaks in 2026.

“We assume a gradual decline in the price of BTC to ~$60k by the end of 2026 (which would be in line with prior bear market drawdowns),” Toner said. “For Q2/25, we estimate a consolidated adj. gross profit of $303.8mm and net income figure of $171.6mm, which we think is reasonable given that GLXY has already realized $160mm–$170mm in operating income.”

ATB raised its 2025 net income estimate to $294.7-million, reflecting strong momentum so far in Q2 and more optimistic expectations for high-margin staking revenue.

“We believe our 2025 NI estimate is conservative,” Toner said. “For 2026e, we adjusted our BTC price estimate down from an average of $104,000 to $87,000 to bring it in line with our other companies under coverage.”

ATB expects Galaxy’s Digital Assets revenue and operating gains to decline 31% year-over-year in 2026, driving a projected net income loss of around $1.1-billion —worse than the $816-million loss recorded during the 2022 bear market. The firm forecasts a 30% drop in Digital Asset gross profit to $346-million. It also expects data center revenue and related capital spending to begin in Q1 2026, tied to progress on the CoreWeave HPC lease.

Toner thinks Galaxy Digital will generate revenue of $60.95-million in revenue in fiscal 2025. He expects those numbers to deteriorate to revenue of $41.23-billion in revenue the following year.

Toner noted Galaxy remains cautious about U.S. crypto regulation, adding that a new law is unlikely to be passed soon.

“Despite bipartisan support, political complexities and concerns over stablecoins and national security have reduced the likelihood of legislation passing in 2025,” Toner said. “Galaxy is actively engaging with lawmakers to advocate for industry-friendly policies while launching a stablecoin in Europe. The GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation in U.S. Stablecoins Act of 2025) is a proposed U.S. Senate bill to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins.”

He said Galaxy believes there’s probably a 30% chance that something gets done in 2025.

“The bill received only 48 votes on May 8, 2025, versus 49 against, falling short of the 60 votes needed to advance. Opposition cited concerns over insufficient safeguards against money laundering, national security risks, and potential conflicts of interest linked to the Trump family’s crypto ventures. Despite bipartisan support, political complexities are making the bill tough to pass in 2025.”

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