Should militaries invest in drones rather than jets?

Militaries around the world are increasingly faced with the decision of whether to prioritize investment in drones or traditional fighter jets. This shift in focus stems from technological advancements, strategic considerations, and the changing nature of modern warfare. The evolution of both drones and jets has shaped military doctrines, with each playing a crucial role in air combat, intelligence gathering, and strike missions. While drones offer a cost-effective and low-risk alternative, fighter jets continue to provide superior speed, firepower, and versatility, making the decision between the two highly dependent on mission requirements and geopolitical strategies.

The history of fighter jets dates back to World War II, when propeller-driven aircraft were gradually replaced by jet-powered fighters, revolutionizing aerial combat. The introduction of jet fighters in the late 1940s and early 1950s, such as the Lockheed P-80 Shooting Star and the Soviet MiG-15, marked the beginning of high-speed, high-altitude air superiority battles. During the Cold War, fighter jets became essential in strategic deterrence, with advanced designs such as the F-4 Phantom, MiG-21, and later the F-15 and Su-27 shaping military doctrines. These aircraft evolved to incorporate beyond-visual-range missiles, stealth technology, and networked warfare capabilities, making them indispensable for maintaining air dominance.

Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), have a much more recent history, with early experiments dating back to World War I. However, significant development did not occur until the late 20th century, when advances in remote control and satellite technology allowed for the deployment of drones in military operations. During the Vietnam War, the U.S. used early drones such as the Ryan Firebee for reconnaissance missions, but it was not until the late 1990s and early 2000s that drones became a mainstream military tool. The Predator drone, first deployed in the Balkans and later in Afghanistan and Iraq, demonstrated the potential of UAVs in both surveillance and precision strikes. With the introduction of more advanced drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper and the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, militaries around the world began to recognize the effectiveness of unmanned systems in modern warfare.

The decision between investing in drones or fighter jets is influenced by multiple factors, including cost, mission objectives, and technological advancements. Fighter jets are significantly more expensive to develop, procure, and maintain, with modern fifth-generation aircraft such as the F-35 Lightning II costing well over $80 million per unit, not including operating expenses. The high cost of training pilots, maintaining complex avionics systems, and ensuring operational readiness makes traditional fighter fleets a significant financial burden for many nations. In contrast, drones can be manufactured at a fraction of the cost, with some models priced below $5 million per unit, making them an attractive option for nations looking to expand their air capabilities without excessive financial strain.

Operational effectiveness also plays a key role in this debate. Drones excel in missions that require long endurance, persistent surveillance, and low-risk strike capabilities. They can operate for extended periods without refueling, allowing militaries to monitor enemy movements, conduct reconnaissance, and launch precision strikes in hostile territories without putting pilots in danger. The ability to conduct operations remotely has made drones particularly useful for counterterrorism missions and asymmetric warfare, where persistent intelligence and targeted strikes are more effective than large-scale air superiority engagements.

Despite these advantages, drones are not a complete replacement for fighter jets, which remain essential for missions requiring speed, agility, and high-intensity combat capabilities. Fighter jets can engage in air-to-air combat, penetrate enemy defenses at supersonic speeds, and deliver large payloads of weapons in a way that drones cannot. While drones can be armed, they generally carry limited weapon loads and lack the ability to evade enemy aircraft or perform advanced aerial maneuvers. In high-threat environments, where air defenses are strong and enemy fighters are present, traditional jets are far better suited to maintaining control of the skies.

The relationship between drones and fighter jets is increasingly shifting toward integration rather than replacement. Many modern air forces are adopting a hybrid approach, where drones and jets complement each other in combat operations. Advanced concepts such as the “loyal wingman” program are being developed, where drones equipped with artificial intelligence can accompany fighter jets, providing additional reconnaissance, electronic warfare capabilities, and even offensive support. This approach enhances the effectiveness of manned aircraft while reducing the risk to human pilots. The U.S., Australia, and several European nations are investing heavily in these programs, signaling a future where drones and jets operate together in coordinated missions.

Technological advancements continue to blur the line between drones and fighter jets. Autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and improved communication networks are enabling drones to carry out more complex missions with greater independence. Some experimental drones are being designed to operate at supersonic speeds, carry more advanced weapons, and engage in limited dogfighting capabilities, potentially shifting the balance further toward unmanned systems. However, full autonomy in air combat remains a significant challenge, as aerial engagements require split-second decision-making, adaptability, and situational awareness that current AI systems struggle to match.

The decision between investing in drones or fighter jets ultimately depends on a nation’s military strategy, threat environment, and budget constraints. Countries with large defense budgets and global power projection ambitions, such as the United States and China, continue to invest heavily in both fighter jets and drones, recognizing the complementary roles each plays. Smaller nations with limited resources often prioritize drones due to their affordability and effectiveness in surveillance and targeted strike missions. Geopolitical considerations, such as regional conflicts and technological partnerships, also influence investment decisions, as nations seek to modernize their air forces while adapting to evolving threats.

While drones offer lower costs, greater endurance, and reduced risk to human pilots, they lack the versatility and combat effectiveness of fighter jets in high-intensity warfare. Fighter jets remain the dominant force in achieving air superiority and executing rapid-response missions. The future of military aviation is likely to be defined by a mix of both technologies, with drones enhancing the capabilities of traditional air fleets rather than entirely replacing them. Militaries will continue to integrate drones into their arsenals while maintaining fighter jets for roles where human control and rapid maneuverability remain essential. The evolution of air warfare suggests a continued emphasis on technological integration, where drones and fighter jets work together to create a more flexible, adaptive, and lethal air combat force