Which Canadian provinces are most exposed to U.S. tariffs?

The threat of new tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration has entities all over the world scrambling to understand their ramifications.

RBC economist Salim Zanzana says for Canada, the threat is real, although the pain will not be distributed equally.

“The threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports has put Canada’s strong dependence on trade into sharp focus,” he wrote in a December 10 piece. “Disruptions or restrictions to the flow of goods and services across the U.S. border could seriously harm Canadian businesses and communities—and ultimately—the broader economy. While there’s considerable uncertainty about whether tariffs will be imposed, and if so, at what rate and on which products—some industries and regions are more exposed to losing access to the U.S. market.”

Zanzana points to certain industries that tend to drive the economies of certain provinces, meaning those provinces would struggle the most with U.S. tariffs.

“Exposure to U.S. tariffs will vary across Canadian provinces. Manufacturing-focused provinces like Ontario and Quebec would see significant challenges in motor vehicles and parts, metals, and aerospace industries,” he added. “Any impacts to energy-exporting industries would largely be concentrated in Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and New Brunswick’s exports to the U.S. account for over 70% of their total exports, making them particularly sensitive to economic shocks arising from tariffs. Energy exports from Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, and British Columbia’s forestry sector would also see disruptions, but their overall exposure is somewhat mitigated by a smaller share of exports going to the U.S.”

The economist says that in the end, most tariffs prove pointless for both sides.

“The economic impact of tariffs would extend beyond trade-dependent industries, creating broader implications for the economy,” Zanzana concluded. “Tariffs rarely provide sustained net economic benefits, especially in closely integrated countries like Canada and the U.S. While low tariff rates may have minimal effects, higher rates could severely disrupt supply chains, amplify economic uncertainty, and trigger retaliatory measures, significantly affecting both countries.”