Is a Lightspeed sale imminent?

Forget about the quarterly results, the market is burying the lede right now on Lightspeed (Lightspeed Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:LSPD), says National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse.

On November 7, LSPD reported its Q2, 2025 results. The company posted Adjusted EBITDA of $14.0-million on revenue of $277.2-million, a topline that was up 20% year-over-year.

“I am proud to announce that on a trailing twelve month basis, Lightspeed now exceeds $1 billion in revenue,” Dax Dasilva. “And we continued our rapid pace of product innovation, releasing dozens of new features in the quarter aimed at helping complex, high-volume SMBs to manage and grow their businesses. Our differentiated product offerings have enabled us to develop a strong competitive position, particularly for retail in North America and hospitality in Europe. These are areas where we have a proven right to win and where we will be prioritizing our efforts in the future.”

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse says these numbers were solid, but says a much more important development happened in the background, and it may point to the imminent sale of the company.

“Despite all the puts and takes with the quarter’s results, the most notable news item from the release was Lightspeed announcing it was postponing its Capital Markets / Investor Day scheduled for November 20th due to the ongoing strategic review the Company announced (confirmed) in late September,” Tse wrote. “The fact that the Capital Markets Day broad registration notice initially came subsequent to the announced strategic review suggests the abrupt postponement 2 weeks out could mean the Company is closing in on a potential transaction.”

In a research update to clients November 7, Tse maintained his “Sector Perform” rating on LSPD but raised his price target on the stock from (US) $16.00 to $20.00, implying a return of 18.2% at the time of publication.

The analyst thinks the company will post Adjusted EBITDA of $51.7-million on revenue of $1.1-billion in fiscal 2025. He expects those numbers will improve to Adjusted EBITDA of $83.9-million on a topline of $1.3-billion in fiscal 2025.

“Bottom line, improving capital efficient allocation is positive but we see risk to a marked (material) turn in merchant (location) growth,” Tse concluded. “That said, the measures noted by Management appear credible to support that effort. For now, the most likely (and more topical) thesis is whether the Company’s takeout candidacy is increasing as discussed through this note. We’re maintaining our Sector Perform rating but increasing our target to US$20 (from US$16) to reflect that growing potential. That target is based on the “midpoint” of the range in our potential takeout analysis referenced above (i.e., 5.5x EV/Gross Profit for CY24E); our previous target was DCF-based and implied a 1.6x EV/Sales multiple on our FY25E.”