Tilray has price target chopped at Roth

Following the company’s first quarter results, Roth MKM analyst Bill Kirk remains on the fence when it comes to Tilray (Tilray Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:TLRY).

On October 10, TLRY reported its Q1, 2025 results. The company posted Adjusted EBITDA of $9.3-million on Net Revenue of $200-million, up from $177-million year-over-year.

“As the Chairman and CEO of Tilray Brands, I am excited to lead a company that is disrupting the CPG industry through innovative products that are transforming the way consumers eat, drink, and unwind with cannabis, hemp and beverage products, CEO Irwin D. Simon said. “Our investments in the cannabis, wellness, beverage, and distribution industries are focused on shaping the future and staying ahead of the curve. We are dedicated to executing our strategic plan to increase revenue, drive operational efficiencies, and improve margins and profitability while investing in our continued growth. Our commitment to innovation and growth is unwavering.”

The analyst says the company failed to capitalize on its Q4 momentum.

“After a strong beat in 4Q’24, Tilray’s 1Q was light (revenue $200mn/cons $218mn and adj. EBITDA $9.3mn/cons. $13.6mn),” the analyst wrote. “Adjusted EBITDA in the period was the lowest since 1Q’21 (before the accretive deals for HEXO, Redecan, Beer Brands, and cost synergies), underscoring the core, organic pressure the business has faced (primarily Canadian price compression). International businesses are refined, setting the stage for imminent growth, but organic growth remains elusive”

In a research update to clients October 11, Kirk maintained his “Neutral” rating on TLRY but lowered his price target on the stock from $2.00 to $1.75.

The analyst thinks the company will post EBITDA of $75.7-million on revenue of $896.7-million in fiscal 2025.

“Upside for Tilray, unfortunately, will be predominantly determined by U.S. legislative outcomes,” Kirk added. “Tilray fundamentals are improved: 1) stable pricing environment and reduction in suppliers in Canada: 2) Beer production and efficient profitability; and 3) leading exposure to very favorable supply/demand relationship in Germany. Canadian Cannabis is better, U.S., Beer innovation and profitability accelerating off acquired bottom, and Europe provides upside. That said, lack of progress in the U.S. still outweighs other considerations. While the best German operators are still to be decided, the:1) medical patients; 2) access, and 3) reimbursement potential are exciting opportunities skewed in Tilray’s favor.”