Dialogue Health Technologies keeps Buy rating with Laurentian

Laurentian Bank Securities analyst Nick Agostino nudged up his target price on Dialogue Health Technologies (Dialogue Health Technologies Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CARE) in a Wednesday update. Agostino said Dialogue is showing strong organic revenue growth with positive results on some key performance indicators such as growth in members, retention rates and new customer wins.

Montreal-based Dialogue, which has digital health and wellness solutions for employers and organizations, announced its fourth quarter and full 2022 financials on Tuesday, reporting sales up 31.5 per cent year-over-year to $23.5 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.1 million compared to a loss of $2.5 million a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was negative $0.03 per share compared to negative $0.04 per share a year ago.

“Dialogue added $23 million in net new [annual recurring revenue (ARR)] in the past year, exceeding $100 million overall, an important milestone that demonstrates our team’s unrelenting focus on driving innovation and upholding a high level of service quality,” said CEO Cherif Habib in a press release. “We also made solid progress with large enterprise customers, those with 10,000 employees or more, signing four such agreements in the fourth quarter alone.”

Agostino said the Q4 topline of $23.5 million arrived in-line with his estimate also at $23.5 million, while the EBITDA loss of $2.1 million was a beat of his forecast at negative $2.6 million. Agostino said Dialogue’s bottom line benefitted from a higher gross margin and solid cost management but was partially offset by a loss from last year’s acquisition, health and wellness platform Tictrac.

At the same time, Agostino called management’s first quarter 2023 guidance mixed, where sales expected at $24.0-$24.5 million was below the consensus expectation at $25.7 million.

“Key performance indicators continue to impress as annual recurring revenue grew to $103.2 million, attach rate rose to 1.55, Memberships increased 44.5 per cent year-over-year to >2.7 million, MSUs grew 49.3 per cent year-over-year to 4.1 million, and 31 per cent of Members used multiple services,” Agostino wrote.

“44 per cent of new direct customers signed up for two or more services in Q4/22. Combined with current customer expansions, the cumulative number of direct Members with two or more services was 31 per cent in Q4/22 versus 21 per cent year-over-year,” he said.

Agostino said Dialogue’s balance sheet remains strong, with cash and equivalents at $62.7 million and a guidance of breakeven EBITDA by the fourth quarter 2023. Agostino reiterated a “Buy” rating on CARE while moving his target from $6.00 to $6.25 per share, with the target based on a 3x 2024 EV/Sales multiple and representing at the time of publication a projected one-year return of 65.3 per cent.