Take a pass on Amyris, says Roth Capital

New quarterly results from biotech company Amyris (Amyris Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:AMRS) aren’t enough to move the needle for Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin, who delivered a report to clients on Wednesday where he reiterated a “Neutral” rating on the stock and a $2.00 price target.

California-based Amyris, which engineers, manufactures and sells high-performance, natural and sustainably-sourced products for the Health & Wellness, Clean Beauty and Flavour & Fragrance markets, reported third quarter 2022 financials on Tuesday, featuring $71.1 million in revenue, up 49 per cent year-over-year, and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $131.7 million compared to a loss of $72.36 million a year earlier. (All figures in US dollars.)

It was the company’s sixth consecutive quarter of record Consumer revenue, coming in at $46.6 million compared to $23.5 million a year earlier, with its other business segment, Technology Access, registering a one per cent improvement to $24.6 million.

“Amyris outperformed key players in the beauty space according to the NielsenIQ 12 weeks trailing year-over-year growth rate of seven per cent,” said John Melo, President and CEO, in a press release. “Our ingredient business continued to sell out all production and entered the fourth quarter with an order backlog.”

Up ahead, the company guided for fourth quarter core revenue of “more than” $100 million. More long term, Amyris is projecting $1 billion in revenues by 2025 with operating margins at 20 per cent.

“We are evolving to balancing profitability and use of cash with revenue growth. We expect to continue delivering the leading revenue growth among our peers in consumer health, beauty, and wellness end-markets along with continuing as the leader in bio-manufacturing and clean, sustainable ingredients supply,” the company said.

Looking at the results, Irwin said the top and bottom numbers were misses, with the $71.1 million in revenue coming in below Roth Capital’s estimate at $95 million as well as the consensus forecast at $91.2 million, while adjusted EBITDA of negative $131.7 million was also lower than Roth’s call at negative $13.6 million and the Street’s negative $59.2 million. 

Irwin noted that gross margins were weighed down by supply chain issues, where direct and shipping costs rose, although management said it expects margin expansion in the fourth quarter.

“Amyris posted weak 3Q22 results and exited the quarter with insufficient cash to fund near-term operations. Management is optimistic for a $350 million cash infusion during 4Q22 from strategic marketing agreements for two ingredients. We are cautious on management execution on portfolio optimization plans, as counterparties clearly have a negotiating advantage,” Irwin wrote.

Having absorbed the Q3 results, Irwin is now forecasting Amyris to generate full 2022 revenue and EBITDA of $314.0 million and negative $398.3 million, respectively, and 2023 revenue and EBITDA of $525.0 million and negative $128.0 million, respectively. At press time, the analyst’s $2.00 target represented a projected one-year return of negative 23 per cent.