Wishpond Technologies has a 160 per cent upside, says Paradigm

Wishpond Technologies (Wishpond Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:WISH) has been down on its luck for a while but Paradigm Capital analyst Daniel Rosenberg is staying bullish on the stock, maintaining a “Buy” rating and target price of $3.25/share in an update to clients on Wednesday.

Founded in 2009 and headquartered in Vancouver, Wishpond Technologies provides an all-in-one suite of integrated digital marketing products focused on serving the small to mid-market.

Rosenberg’s updated analysis comes after Wishpond CEO Ali Tajskandar released his annual letter for 2022 that highlights a positive outlook for continued strong organic growth and plans for disciplined M&A.

“We believe WISH is well positioned for outperformance in 2022 given leading organic growth of about 40 per cent, investment in doubling the sales force and a pipeline of M&A opportunities,” Rosenberg said. “Shares have sold off with the broader tech sector and are trading at attractive levels. We believe shares will rerate higher as the company scales this year.”

In his letter, Tajskandar pointed to a number of positives the company achieved, most notably the doubling of its sales team, with plans of increasing the team to about 45 in 2022. The company has seen impressive results with these investments with greater than 80 per cent growth expected in the 2021 year-end totals, including roughly 40 per cent organic growth.

“I am extremely grateful to our dedicated and talented team members at Wishpond who have worked tirelessly for years and especially over the past year making our accomplishments possible,” Tajskandar wrote in the letter. “I’m also very thankful to our clients for trusting their businesses with us and allowing us to be part of their entrepreneurial journeys.”

Wishpond kicked off the new year by closing the acquisition of Winback, which provides Wishpond with user-friendly and automated SMS marketing solutions, including a cart abandonment tool that can also be sold to Wishpond’s existing eCommerce clients, for a total consideration of US$700,000.

Rosenberg expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive, resulting in higher MRR and customer retention. Wishpond is also targeting complementary technologies and new customer relationships, according to Rosenberg.

“We are pleased to welcome Winback to the Wishpond family,” Tajskandar said in the company’s January 4 press release. “Winback is a great strategic fit with our current product offerings and its cross-sell opportunities are expected to increase our customer lifetime value. Winback is our fourth acquisition since going public just over a year ago; establishing Wishpond’s track record as a disciplined acquirer and capital allocator.”

Wishpond followed up by making a change to its executive team, appointing David Pais, an industry veteran with experience in several growth-oriented technology companies and broad capital market transactions experience over the last 20 years, as the new Chief Financial Officer. Pais replaced Juan Leal, who will continue to support the company in an M&A advisory role.

Rosenberg forecasts decent growth for Wishpond in the next year or two, projecting a final 2021 revenue figure of $14.6 million, implying year-over-year growth of 86 per cent. Looking ahead to 2022, Rosenberg projects a further jump to $22.6 million to imply a 55 per cent year-over-year increase.

The gross profit margin projects to remain fairly constant in that time period as well, with Rosenberg forecasting a 66.3 per cent margin ($9.7 million) in 2021, in line with the reported 2020 margin, but with a year-over-year increase of 86 per cent. In 2022, Rosenberg forecasts a 65.7 per cent margin, with the $14.9 million in gross profit implying a 53 per cent year-over-year increase.

Rosenberg’s adjusted EBITDA projections for Wishpond show a bit more variance, as Rosenberg forecasts negative adjusted EBITDA of $200,000 in 2021 after reporting positive adjusted EBITDA of $500,000 with a margin of 6.3 per cent in 2020. Rosenberg projects a rebound in adjusted EBITDA in 2022, with a forecast of $1.1 million for a 4.8 per cent margin.

Wishpond’s valuation also comes into clearer focus in Rosenberg’s updated analysis, as he projects the company’s EV/Sales multiple to drop from 4.2x in 2021 to 2.7x in 2022, presenting as a discount to the peer group averages of 8.2x and 6.6x, respectively.

Meanwhile, Rosenberg also incorporates an EV/EBITDA multiple of 56.8x in 2022 into his analysis, roughly in line with the 55.9x peer group average.

“Strong fundamentals should overshadow any headwinds from broader market valuation as the company continues to execute on profitable growth,” Rosenberg said. “We believe long-term trends will be supportive of increasing the use of digital services within SMBs where Wishpond has an opportunity to establish itself as a dominant player in marketing technology.”

Overall, Wishpond’s stock price has dropped by 32 per cent over the last year, hitting a 52-week high of $2.38/share on January 20, bouncing back nicely since hitting a 52-week low of $1.05/share on August 18. At press time, Rosenberg’s $3.25 target represented a projected one-year return of 160 per cent.

Disclosure: Wishpond Technologies is an annual sponsor of Cantech Letter.