European Organic Foods company Organto Foods (Organto Foods Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:OGO) is ripe for growth, according to Clarus Securities analyst George Ulybyshev, who initiated coverage on Wednesday with a “Speculative Buy” rating and target price of $0.75/share for a projected return of 87.5 per cent.
Headquartered in Vancouver, Organto Foods sources, processes, packages, distributes and markets organic and specialty food products, with a particular emphasis on the European market as it operates in the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Spain, Russia, Sweden, Norway and Denmark.
Organto’s pivoted in 2019 from being an asset-heavy, single revenue stream business to an asset-light, multi revenue stream model by exiting its growing and packaging operations and entering strategic sourcing arrangements with third-party growers and processing and packaging partners. The company’s streamlined operations and expanded portfolio led, with the resulting revenue growing from virtually zero in the first half of 2019 to an annualized run-rate of $21 million in the second quarter of 2021.
“By streamlining its operations, Organto was able to rapidly scale and expand its product offering from a limited selection of organic vegetables, such as organic green beans, sugar snaps and snow peas, to an array of value-added organic fruits and vegetables, including asparagus, avocado, blueberries, ginger, herbs, limes, mango and other products, offered in bulk, as well as higher-margin private label and branded formats,” Ulybyshev said.
On top of the asset-light model driving rapid revenue, Ulybyshev’s investment thesis also makes note of the company’s efforts to build a diversified product portfolio with material margin upside potential, as well as having plenty of potential for accretive acquisitions.
The company has further expanded its portfolio within the last month, adding fresh cut fruit sourced from European and Latin American growers, as well as organic fairtrade bananas from growers in the Dominican Republic.
Organto also announced the launch of its I AM Organic brand with Gorillas, a European instant on-demand grocery delivery, with a further expansion to include Julia’s, a convenience retail outlet operated by NS Stations, which manages, operates and develops more than 400 train stations in the Netherlands.
Most recently, the company announced its intent to acquire all outstanding shares in Beeorganic, a year-round provider of fresh fairtrade organic bananas with sales in the Netherlands, Belgium and France.
“Growth via acquisition has been one of our stated strategies, and we are pleased to be able to announce our second acquisition of 2021.” said Rients van der Wal, Co-CEO of Organto and CEO of Organto in the company’s September 29 press release announcing the Beeorganic deal. “Mike (Reuselaars, Beeorganic co-owner) has successfully built the Beeorganic business over the years based upon strong values and operating principles, and we believe the business will be a great fit with the operating platform that we have been building. We continue to expand our product capabilities and work to bring value to the categories we serve and by combining our collective strengths, we believe we will be able to profitably expand the banana category for years to come.”
Ulybyshev projects the company’s fortunes to triple over a three-year period, projecting $35.1 million in revenue for 2021 before a potential year-over-year increase of 85.2 per cent to a projected $65 million in 2022, followed by a forecasted 65.1 per cent year-over-year increase to $107.3 million in revenue for 2023.
Meanwhile, after projecting a loss of $1.2 million in 2021, Ulybyshev forecasts the company’s EBITDA to turn positive in 2022 at $1.4 million for a margin of 1.8 per cent, followed by a jump to projected $8.4 million and a 7.8 per cent margin in 2023.
Ulybyshev’s valuation data also shows promise for the company, with the projected EV/Sales multiples dropping from 3.1x in 2021 to 1.7x in 2022, then to 1x in 2023. Meanwhile, Ulybyshev’s initial forecasts for the EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple (13x) and the price-earnings ratio (17.5x) begin in 2023.
With a viable path to becoming a company with an annualized run rate of $100 million by the end of 2022, Ulybyshev believes Organto is well on its way to building upon its present success.
“We believe that the company’s scalable asset-light business model, in-depth market expertise, and strategic relationships with growers around the world will allow it to become a leading one stop provider of fresh organic produce in the European market,” Ulybyshev said. “Over time, we also see an opportunity for the company to expand outside of Europe and view Organto as an attractive growth company for investors looking to capitalize on the positive macro trends within the organic food industry.”
Overall, Organto’s stock has performed well over the course of the year with a 30 per cent return, reaching a high point of $0.50/share on June 30.