Haywood raises price target on Rubicon Organics to $4.20

Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer likes the look of Rubicon Organics (Rubicon Organics Stock Quote, Chart,News CSE:ROMJ), which just released better than expected quarterly results.

In an update to clients on Wednesday, Gilmer reiterated his “Buy” rating for the stock and upped his
target price from $3.75 to $4.20, saying Rubicon continues to execute well in its underserved niche segment of the cannabis market.

Vancouver-based Rubicon has a license to cultivate and process cannabis through its wholly owned subsidiary Vintages Organic Cannabis, a 125,000 sq ft greenhouse in Delta, BC, and its Simply Bare Organics brand.

Rubicon announced its second quarter 2020 financials on Wednesday, with revenue of $1.0 million and an EBITDA loss of $2.5 million. It was the company’s first full quarter of fully planted cultivation at its Delta facility, while its product line now features eight SKUs and recreational market distribution covering 71 per cent of the Canadian population from the province of BC to Ontario.

Over the quarter, Rubicon also closed on a $13.5-million private placement aimed at helping it launch its derivatives products, and the company ended the quarter with $12.5 million in cash on its balance sheet.

“Our facility is running at full utilization and we have the resources to fund our growth into all these markets, achieve our financial goals and to expand our product line through innovation of the highest quality and sustainably produced cannabis products,” said CEO Jesse McConnell in a press release.

“We are well on track during this ramp up phase in our operations and have met our internal expectations. We have established a solid platform for high quality production and we anticipate significant revenue growth in the upcoming quarters as we continue to build our product inventory and sell through our newly established provincial channels,” he said.

The Q2 numbers were a little ahead of Gilmer’s estimates, with the top line of $1.0 million comparing to his $0.9 million forecast and the EBITDA loss of $2.5 million comparing to his estimated loss of $3.1 million. In his report, Gilmer noted that Rubicon management expects to be EBITDA positive on a monthly basis by the end of 2020, with positive cash flow from operations expected in the first half of 2021.

Gilmer has revised his estimates to reflect lower sales as Rubicon ramps up its distribution with the provincial boards, while at the same time noting that Rubicon’s products “continue to receive positive reviews and we anticipate awareness of the brand will continue to expand throughout the second half of the year leading to a solid 2021,” Gilmer wrote.

The analyst is now calling for 2020 revenue and EBITDA of $13.1 million and negative $6.5 million, respectively, and for 2021 revenue and EBITDA of $68.4 million and $23.3 million, respectively. Gilmer said, “Subsequent to receiving its cultivation and production license, Rubicon has scaled up its production and now has distribution agreements across three provinces in Canada. The company is pursuing a niche segment of the market that we believe is currently underserved.”

At press time, Gilmer’s new $4.20 per share target represented a projected return of 25 per cent.