Green Thumb Industries is still a cheap cannabis stock, Beacon says

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley remains bullish on vertically-integrated cannabis company Green Thumb Industries (Green Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart CSE:GTII), saying Green Thumb continues to trade at a substantial discount to its industry peers.

Chicago-based GTI announced on Thursday that it had closed on a $105-million non-brokered senior secured note financing, saying it will use the funds to support its build-out along with the repayment of the company’s existing debt of $7.2 million. (All figures in US dollars unless noted otherwise.)

“Strategic capital allocation is fundamental to the business and this financing strengthens our balance sheet at an attractive cost of capital for our business and shareholders,” said founder and CEO Ben Kovler, in a press release. “We are well-positioned to capitalize on the attractive market opportunities in front of us. The proceeds will fuel our aggressive growth plans for faster route-to-market in key markets like New Jersey, as well as pursue expansion opportunities that broaden the reach of our brand portfolio.”

Ahead of Green Thumb’s first quarter fiscal 2019 results due on May 30, Stanley is calling for revenue of $27.0 million (consensus $27.4 million), which is in line with management’s implied guidance for the quarter. The analyst is also calling for an EBITDA loss of $3.2 million, which is greater than the consensus of $1.1 million. The analyst says that he will be looking for an update on the build-out in the company’s core markets as well as timelines for closing the outstanding acquisitions in Nevada and New York.

“GTII now trades at 10x our 2020E EBITDA estimate. This represents a 54 per cent discount to the 23x average for the broad peer group, and a 68 per cent discount to the 32x average at which companies with a plus-C$1 billion market capitalization trade,: says Stanley in a note to clients on Thursday.

For fiscal 2019, Stanley thinks that Green Thumb will generate revenue of $226.5 million and Attributable EBITDA of $39.9 million. The analyst is reiterating his “Buy” recommendation and C$44.00 target price, which represents a projected 12-month return of 178 per cent at the time of publication.