Will AI kill Shopify?

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse said the impact of AI on tech valuations is becoming more company-specific, with names like Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:SHOP) and Kinaxis (Kinaxis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KXS) emerging as relative winners because of clearer monetization pathways.

On Shopify (“Outperform”; PT: US$200.00), Tse said the company is already seeing early returns from its AI investments, particularly through its commerce infrastructure and distribution advantage.

He pointed to Shopify’s integration with major AI ecosystems, including Gemini, ChatGPT and Microsoft Copilot, which are increasingly directing traffic and transactions onto its platform.

In his view, AI is not just a defensive layer for Shopify, but a growth driver.

Tse highlighted that AI search traffic to Shopify merchants rose sharply in 2025, with the company “syndicating billions of products” into AI platforms, effectively positioning itself as the system of record for AI-enabled commerce.

He also noted that AI is helping Shopify on the cost side, with operating leverage improving as internal AI tools reduce expenses as a percentage of revenue; a key factor supporting premium valuation multiples.

The result, Tse said, is a rare combination: AI supporting both top-line growth and margin expansion, which underpins Shopify’s continued leadership positioning.

On Kinaxis (“Outperform”; PT: C$240.00), Tse said the story is more about AI-driven monetization layered onto a mission-critical platform.

The company’s supply chain orchestration platform is already deeply embedded in enterprise workflows, and its newer AI capabilities, including agent-based systems and its Maestro platform, are designed to enhance decision-making rather than replace it.

Tse said Kinaxis is building a clearer path to monetizing AI through new pricing frameworks, including its Maestro Activity Units model, which ties AI usage directly to revenue.

He also pointed to strong demand drivers, including rising global supply chain volatility, which is pushing enterprises toward more advanced planning tools.

“Kinaxis remains one of our Top Picks,” Tse said, citing enterprise momentum, a strong pipeline and the potential for incremental AI-driven upside not yet reflected in guidance.

The broader takeaway, Tse said, is that AI is reshaping valuation dispersion within tech, rather than lifting the entire sector equally.

Companies like Shopify and Kinaxis are being rewarded because they combine clear AI use cases, visible monetization, and strong underlying fundamentals, while others continue to trade at a discount due to ongoing disintermediation risk.

“In our view, that recovery does not mean the risk of AI disintermediation has disappeared,” Tse said, reinforcing that selectivity remains critical even as sentiment improves.

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