Green Thumb Industries has a 151 per cent upside, says Beacon Securities

US cannabis company Greeen Thumb Industries (Greeen Thumb Industries Stock Quote, Chart CSE:GTII) remains at a deep discount to its industry peers, according to Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley, who on Thursday reiterated his “Buy” recommendation and C$44.00 target.

In an update to clients, Stanley noted a couple of recent events, the first being GTII’s announcement on Wednesday that its dispensary in Amherst, Massachusetts, would next week being serving the adult-use market (it had been a medical dispensary for the past year). Stanley sees the move as Green Thumb management executing to plan, and thus a positive, while also noting that the shop is well-located for the rec market with close proximity to a number of colleges.

Stanley also points to the recent vote by a subcommittee of the State of Ohio’s medical advisory board to add anxiety and autism to the list of condition approved for medical cannabis. With approximately 1.6 million people in Ohio suffering from anxiety, the move has expanded the medical market in the state, says the analyst.

“We believe the addition of anxiety represents a significant expansion of the addressable market in Ohio. GTII operates two of the 15 dispensaries open to date and it is licensed to open another three dispensaries, giving it the legal maximum five of 56 dispensaries currently authorized in the state. We therefore believe it is very well positioned in what should be a major medical market,” says Stanley.

The analyst sees GTII as currently trading at approximately 11x his fiscal 2020 EBITDA estimate, which represents a 48-per-cent discount to the 22x average for its broad peer group and a 75-per-cent discount to the 44x average for companies with market caps over C$1 billion.

Stanley sees potential catalysts for GTII including its first quarter fiscal 2019 results due on May 30 and the closing of acquisitions in Nevada and New York (both are expected this quarter). The analyst estimates that GTII will generate fiscal 2019 revenue and Attributable EBITDA of $226.5 million and $38.4 million and fiscal 2020 revenue and Attributable EBITDA of $523.5 million and $195.7 million.

Stanley’s C$44.00 target represented a potential return on investment of 151 per cent at the time of publication.