The acquisition price for one of its immediate peers suggests Cynapsus Therapeutics (TSXV:CTH) is currently undervalued, says M Partners analyst Daniel Pearlstein.
On September 24th, Acorda Therapeutics (Nasdaq:ACOR) announced it would acquire privately held Civitas Therapeutics for (US) $525 million in cash. Acorda will now own the worldwide rights to CVT-301, a Phase II-completed asset for Parkinson’s Disease off episodes, as well as rights to Civitas’s proprietary pulmonary inhaler delivery technology.
Pearlstein says this transaction bodes well for Cynapsus, which owns apomorphine, the only FDA approved drug for Parkinson’s Disease off episodes. Off episodes refer to the common reemergence of symptoms such as slow movement and muscle stiffness in patients currently taking medicine for Parkinson’s. Cynapus is currently reformulating apomorphine from an injection into an oral thin-film strip.
Pearlstein says Acorda is acquiring some risk with Civitas in that further clinical studies are still needed and its inhaler technology, which was once floated as a potential inhalable insulin solution for diabetes was ultimately abandoned by Eli Lilly.
The analyst estimates that peak U.S. sales for Cynapsus’s thin film strip apomorphine product, APL-130277, will be about $300-million. Applying the same multiple that Acorda paid for Citivias, which was 1.05 sales, implies a $315-million takeout, or $2.18 per share, points out Pearlstein. He expects this might happen in six to eight months, after the results of CTH-300a, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-design study with Parkinson’s patients who have at least one “off” episode every 24 hours, with total “off” time of at least 2 hours, are made available.
In a research update to clients Friday, Pearlstein maintained his “Buy” rating and $1.75 one-year target on Cynapsus Therapeutics, implying a return of 182% at the time of publication.