National Bank trims price target on CAE

National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen lowered his target on CAE (CAE Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CAE) to $48.00 from $49.00 following a modest reduction to his revenue forecasts, while maintaining his “Outperform” rating.

As reported by the Globe and Mail, in an Oct. 21 update, Doerksen said CAE faces near-term challenges but remains well positioned for long-term growth in its Civil Aviation and Defence businesses.

“CAE faces some near-term headwinds, but we remain positive on the long-term growth prospects for both the Civil and Defence segments,” Doerksen said.

The analyst said the company’s ongoing transformation program should support higher margins, stronger cash flow and increased capital returns in the coming years. He also sees an attractive valuation relative to aerospace peers.

Based on his fiscal 2028 estimates, CAE trades at 10.9 times EV/EBITDA, compared with 12.2 times for direct aerospace peers.

He noted that his fiscal 2028 forecast incorporates improved profitability but remains below CAE’s longer-term targets.

Separately, CAE announced Oct. 20 that it has added four full-flight simulators to its business aviation training network in the Americas, expanding capacity for Bombardier, Embraer, Pilatus and Cessna aircraft.

The additions support training for the Bombardier Global 6500, Embraer Praetor 600, Pilatus PC-24 and Cessna Citation CJ4. CAE said its business aviation training capacity has nearly doubled over the past decade, with more than 130 full-flight simulators and approximately 1,000 instructors worldwide. The company delivers more than 300,000 hours of business aviation training annually.

CAE’s Aviation Talent Forecast projects demand for 102,000 new business aviation professionals worldwide by 2034, including 33,000 pilots and 69,000 maintenance technicians.

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