The Odyssey has been good for IMAX shareholders, this analyst says

Roth Capital Partners analyst Eric Handler says IMAX’s (IMAX Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:IMAX) record Q3 box office has more than offset first-half weakness and should lift the company’s 2026 outlook.

Handler maintained his “Buy” rating on IMAX and raised his target to US$60.00 from $50.00 on Sept. 3. His target is based on 16 times his 2026 Adjusted EBITDA estimate.

Handler raised his Q3 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA forecasts to US$152-million and US$85-million, respectively, from his previous estimates of US$107-million and US$52-million.

The analyst now expects Q3 gross box office of US$625-million, up from his prior US$399-million forecast and above IMAX’s previous quarterly record of US$364.5-million in Q3 2019.

Handler said the increase was driven largely by The Odyssey, which has generated about US$449-million in IMAX box office and is beginning its run in Japan.

The stronger Q3 reduces pressure on Q4, where Handler lowered his gross box office forecast to US$375-million from US$400-million. He now expects Q4 revenue of US$130-million and Adjusted EBITDA of US$58-million.

Handler said the year-end slate includes Dune: Part Three, which was filmed for IMAX and will also run on 70mm screens. He said early reports suggest strong demand for opening-weekend screenings.

For 2027, Handler said IMAX should be able to grow gross box office despite a difficult comparison against what is expected to be more than US$1.5-billion in 2026.

He said better spacing of major releases, stronger studio marketing around IMAX screenings and higher revenue per screen should support market-share gains and backlog installations.

Handler expects IMAX to generate Adjusted EBITDA of US$221.6-million on revenue of US$466.3-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of US$230.3-million on revenue of US$476.3-million in fiscal 2027.

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