High Tide is Canada’s cannabis leader, this analyst says

Haywood Securities analyst Neal Gilmer says High Tide’s (High Tide Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:HITI) record Q3 results showed continued strength in revenue, EBITDA and cash flow.

Gilmer reiterated his “Buy” rating and $8.00 target on High Tide. His target is based on 1.1 times his 2027 revenue estimate, discounted by 15%.

High Tide reported Q3 revenue of $198.8-million, up 32.8% year-over-year and 10.9% sequentially. The result was ahead of Gilmer’s $197.1-million estimate and consensus at $194.6-million.

Adjusted EBITDA was a record $16.2-million, representing an 8.2% margin and ahead of Gilmer’s $15.9-million forecast.

The company generated $7.0-million of free cash flow in the quarter, its sixth consecutive quarter of positive free cash flow. Free cash flow over the last 12 months was $12.8-million.

“In our opinion, High Tide has demonstrated the strong retail prowess to continue to be the leader in Canada,” Gilmer said in his Sept. 15 update.

High Tide’s Canna Cabana retail chain ended the quarter with 232 locations and more than 2.73-million Cabana Club members, up 27% year-over-year. ELITE members increased 62% to more than 186,000.

Retail revenue was $160.6-million, up 7.3% year-over-year and 8.8% sequentially. Same-store sales were flat year-over-year, though management said June and July showed positive growth.

The international medical cannabis segment, led by Remexian, generated record revenue of $38.2-million, up 20.8% sequentially. Volumes increased 35% to 10.2 tonnes.

Gilmer said he slightly raised his 2026 estimates after the quarter, with the stronger results carrying into his 2027 forecast.

He expects High Tide to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $58.0-million on revenue of $761.7-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $76.1-million on revenue of $849.3-million in fiscal 2027.

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