Trulieve’s medical business is “a force”, this analyst says

Roth Capital Partners analyst Bill Kirk says Trulieve Cannabis (Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:TRUL)  remains a pioneer in the cannabis sector as it becomes the first plant-touching multi-state operator to uplist to a major U.S. exchange.

In a July 7 update, Kirk reiterated his “Buy” rating and $19.00 target on Trulieve.

Kirk said the cannabis industry is beginning to move from less liquid and less visible exchanges to major U.S. exchanges, with Trulieve leading the way. He said the company’s decision to ring-fence its adult-use assets and retain control of only the medical portion of the business helped make the New York Stock Exchange comfortable with the listing, particularly alongside recent medical rescheduling.

Kirk updated his estimates to reflect the deconsolidation of Trulieve’s adult-use business. He said the remaining medical business, representing about 75% of legacy sales, leaves Trulieve as a high-margin cash flow leader.

“Trulieve’s medical business is a force,” Kirk said.

Trulieve’s consolidated operations now include assets in Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, representing 206 dispensaries and 3.5 million square feet of cultivation capacity. Kirk said that footprint generated about $214-million of Q1 2026 revenue, a 64.4% gross margin and about $6.0-million of net income before 280E adjustments.

The medical business generated fiscal 2025 revenue of $904-million, down from $1.18-billion when adult-use assets were included, while reported gross margin rose to 64% from 60%. Kirk said the medical business will no longer be subject to 280E taxes.

The separated Harvest adult-use entity reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $278-million and a 46.5% gross margin. Trulieve’s pro forma balance sheet now includes an equity-method investment in Harvest valued at $188.5-million.

The analyst now forecasts Q2 2026 revenue of $268.5-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $92.6-million, down from his prior revenue and Adjusted EBITDA estimates of $281.6-million and $94.5-million.

For 2026, he estimates revenue of $994.0-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $341.7-million, compared with prior estimates of $1.15-billion and $390.7-million.

Kirk said Trulieve is well-positioned because of its medical revenue base, its ability to reconsolidate adult-use assets if regulations improve, its Texas medical licence and the removal of the 280E tax overhang.

“As one of the first to defer 280E taxes and now the first plant-touching MSO to uplist, Trulieve continues to be a pioneer in the industry,” Kirk said.

-30-