The Odyssey could be a “transformational event” for IMAX, this analyst says

Roth Capital Partners analyst Eric Handler says The Odyssey could be a “transformational event” for IMAX (IMAX Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:IMAX), strengthening its position with studios, directors and theatre operators.

In a July 17 update, Handler maintained his “Buy” rating and $48.00 target on IMAX.

Handler estimates The Odyssey could generate more than $215-million of global box office revenue for IMAX, with potential upside. He said the movie should further cement IMAX’s role in Hollywood by offering incremental value to studios and theatre operators.

Handler said recent weakness in IMAX shares, driven by disappointing Q2 global box office results and lower expectations for a takeout, has created a favourable risk/reward setup.

He said Christopher Nolan remains IMAX’s strongest Hollywood supporter, with the format now central to the director’s marketing campaigns. IMAX captured 23% to 27% of domestic opening weekend market share for Nolan’s last three films, Oppenheimer, Dunkirk and Interstellar, and Handler expects The Odyssey to perform similarly, with seating capacity the main constraint.

Handler said the expected success of The Odyssey could prompt IMAX to work more closely with other major directors, including Greta Gerwig, Michael B. Jordan and Denis Villeneuve, to build similar marketing strategies around the IMAX brand.

The analyst also said stronger studio and director alignment could push theatre operators to add more IMAX systems as consumer demand for premium movie experiences grows.

Handler modestly lowered his Q2 estimates after global box office came in below his forecast. He now expects Q2 revenue of $94-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $40-million, down from $97-million and $43-million, respectively.

For Q3, Handler forecasts global box office of $399-million, up 11%, led by The Odyssey and supported by growth in North America, international markets and China.

Handler expects IMAX to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $191.7-million on revenue of $428.4-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $217.5-million on revenue of $465.2-million in fiscal 2027.

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