Is Calian Group still undervalued?

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Rob Goff says Calian’s (Calian Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGY) role in a new Arctic maritime security consortium supports its push to become a prime contractor on Canadian defence work.

In a July 15 update, Goff maintained his “Buy” rating and $100.00 target on Calian.

Calian announced the launch of the Canadian Arctic Maritime Security Consortium alongside six other Atlantic Canadian groups. Goff said Calian’s role in systems interoperability and orchestration positions it as the consortium’s integrator, while partners provide ship design, refit, Indigenous seafarer training and AI sea-ice forecasting.

“We believe CAMSC positions Calian to pursue a greater number of small- and mid-sized Canadian defence contracts as a prime contractor rather than solely as a subcontractor,” Goff said.

The analyst said the strategy aligns with Canada’s increased focus on domestic procurement as annual defence spending moves from about $60-billion toward $180-billion and procurement shifts away from its historical 70/30 U.S.-Canadian split toward a 30/70 split.

Goff said Calian’s organic growth should accelerate beyond consensus expectations as it expands through partnerships, alliances and acquisitions. He said recent Calian white papers on sovereign capability and defence contracting reinforce the company’s move toward prime contractor status.

He also pointed to Calian’s recent acquisition of Galaxy Broadband Communications, a Canadian low-Earth-orbit satellite deployment company serving government, critical infrastructure and remote-community customers in Northern Canada. Goff said the deal expands Calian’s connectivity portfolio and aligns with NORAD modernization and Canadian defence priorities.

“We look for further acquisitions by Calian and its peers as sector leaders add capacity and capabilities ahead of increased government spending,” Goff said.

Goff said current forecasts may prove conservative given the defence spending reset. He expects Calian to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $93.0-million on revenue of $875.0-million in fiscal 2026, improving to Adjusted EBITDA of $106.0-million on revenue of $945.0-million in fiscal 2027.

Calian trades at 10.8 times and 9.2 times calendar 2026 and 2027 EV/EBITDA, respectively, compared with its five-year average next-12-month multiple of 8.7 times.

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