Watch for Cargojet in the second half of 2026, analyst says

Paradigm Capital analyst Razi Hasan maintained a “Buy” rating and $110.00 target on Cargojet (Cargojet Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CJT) in a May 5 research note after first-quarter results beat expectations.

Cargojet reported Q1 revenue of $254-million, up 1.9% year-over-year and ahead of Hasan’s $242-million estimate and consensus at $244-million. Adjusted EBITDA was $81.9-million, a 32.2% margin, ahead of Hasan’s $77-million estimate and the Street at $79-million.

“While international freight volumes remain pressured, we feel Cargojet has navigated well through this challenging environment,” Hasan said.

Domestic Network revenue was flat year-over-year at $105-million, while ACMI revenue fell 8.8% to $54-million as aircraft shifted from longer Asia and Europe routes to shorter South American routes. All-in Charter revenue rose 26.3% to $58-million, well ahead of expectations, helped by new charter opportunities including Venezuela and continued service to Liege, Belgium.

Hasan said he remains cautious because of uncertainty around international freight, tariffs and jet fuel costs, but said Cargojet’s flexible use of aircraft across ACMI and charter routes should help diversify revenue.

“We consider CJT a 2H26 story, as macro uncertainty still clouds the skies,” Hasan said.

Hasan expects Cargojet to generate Adjusted EBITDA of $327.7-million on revenue of $1.024-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to $340.4-million on revenue of $1.047-billion in fiscal 2027.

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