This weed stock is undervalued, analyst says

Haywood analyst Neal Gilmer maintained a “Buy” rating and C$19.00 target on Trulieve Cannabis (Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:TRUL) in a May 7 report after first-quarter results came in slightly ahead of expectations.

Trulieve reported Q1 revenue of $286.8-million, ahead of Gilmer’s $282.9-million estimate and consensus at $284.7-million. Adjusted EBITDA was $100.4-million, above his $95.6-million forecast and consensus at $97.5-million, with a 35.0% margin.

The company generated $56-million in operating cash flow and $42-million in free cash flow, ending the quarter with $352.9-million in cash and $628.7-million in total debt, including lease and construction liabilities.

Retail revenue was $265.2-million, or 93.7% of total revenue. Trulieve opened three Florida dispensaries in the quarter and now has 240 retail locations after four additional Q2 openings.

Gilmer said management expects Q2 revenue to rise in the low single digits, with full-year gross margins similar to 2025. The company also expects at least $250-million in operating cash flow and $85-million in capex for 2026.

“We continue to view Trulieve favourably in the U.S. market,” Gilmer said. “While margins may temper slightly from the past two quarters, we expect them to remain at very healthy levels.”

The analyst expects Trulieve to generate Adjusted EBITDA of US$401.1-million on revenue of US$1.178-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to US$415.8-million on revenue of US$1.221-billion in fiscal 2027.

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